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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | −3 pts | +9 pts | 19¢ · 21¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 20¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 20%.