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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 9 | 100% | +2 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 8 | 0% | −2 pts | −74 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 10 | 100% | +1 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 7 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 17 | 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 24 | 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 8 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| July 15 | 100% | 0 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 13 | 100% | +1 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 26 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| June 23 | 0% | −1 pts | −25 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| May 22 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99d | gmeowcl | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,373 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d |  Lord-Of-Democracy | July 9 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,196 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 99d |  tourists2 fills | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,873 | +$34 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d |  kinderSman2 fills | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,190 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d |  Gleaming-Pear | July 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,429 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | kukubaja | July 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,969 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | Gleaming-Pear | July 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,835 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | Gleaming-Pear | July 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,823 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | Gleaming-Pear | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,559 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d | tourists3 fills | July 9 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,558 | −$42 −0.8% | — |
| 99d |  Hakei.2 fills | July 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,557 | +$34 +0.6% | 20 |
| 99d | GOPACERS | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | Somber-Ice | July 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,763 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d |  libratus12 fills | July 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,367 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | kinderSman | July 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,562 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | kinderSman | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,493 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d |  The-Joker | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,581 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | The-Joker | July 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,673 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 99d | The-Joker | July 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,533 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d | libratus1 | July 9 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,374 | +$24 +1.7% | 20 |
| 99d |  HowToBasic | July 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 99d | hitjnn214 | July 9 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,942 | −$212 −3.1% | — |
| 100d |  zb8 | July 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 100d | luckyshoe | July 10 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,740 | −$42 −1.1% | — |
| 100d | thoodr | July 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,591 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 100d | The-Joker4 fills | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,798 | +$93 +0.4% | 20 |
| 100d | 0x8931…a90c | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,784 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 100d | tourists | July 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,302 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 100d | tourists | July 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,390 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 100d | tourists | July 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,214 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 100d | thoodr2 fills | July 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,493 | +$53 +1.2% | 20 |
| 100d | Certify0148 | July 9 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,093 | −$147 −4.7% | — |
| 100d |  CosmicCedar2 fills | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,880 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
| 100d | Gleaming-Pear | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,960 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
| 100d | Paradise Capital | July 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,170 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 100d | RolandChang | July 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,105 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 101d | 4e2fbc2acf | July 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,985 | +$81 +1.0% | 20 |
| 101d |  Dios777 | July 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,716 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 101d | 1hbh | July 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,647 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 101d | hitjnn214 | July 8 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,632 | +$33 +2.0% | 20 |
| 101d | enjoyevery | July 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,300 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 101d | enjoyevery2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,736 | +$217 +3.2% | 20 |
| 101d | Artaius | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 101d | Certify0148 | July 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 101d | 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | July 7 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,474 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | wqujvj | July 9 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,266 | +$54 +4.2% | 21 |
| 101d | tourists | July 8 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,564 | +$251 +4.5% | 20 |
| 101d | Hakei. | July 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,766 | +$62 +2.3% | 20 |
| 101d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | July 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,010 | +$55 +1.8% | 20 |
| 101d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | July 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,374 | +$76 +2.2% | 20 |
| 101d | Hakei. | July 24 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | +$25 +1.8% | 20 |
| 101d | Hakei. | July 15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | +$51 +3.7% | 20 |
| 101d | Hakei. | July 13 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$71 +5.4% | 20 |
| 101d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | July 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,790 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | HowToBasic | July 7 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 101d | enjoyevery | July 7 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,247 | +$53 +1.0% | 20 |
| 102d |  moonlight2020 | July 15 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$162 +10% | 20 |
| 102d | bonalddrunk | July 9 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | −$266 −20% | — |
| 102d | TheLast | July 9 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$956 +27% | 23 |
| 102d |  mewmew1 | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,234 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
rawmilkgambler100 shares
Brokie10,000 shares
Xeny2,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 31 means the market gives it about 100%.