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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 100% | +7 pts | +65 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| January 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| December 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| January 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| April 20 | 100% | +2 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| January 9 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| March 31 | 100% | +2 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| February 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 242d | lisra | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,290 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 242d |  0xdc3E831cad | February 28 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,366 | +$117 +2.7% | 20 |
| 242d |  Xeny | February 28 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,445 | −$37 −0.5% | — |
| 242d | wubddh2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,038 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 242d | wubddh | April 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,120 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 242d |  turtle911 | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,136 | +$15 +0.7% | 20 |
| 242d | turtle911 | April 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,071 | +$16 +0.5% | 20 |
| 242d |  hack-vc | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 243d | hahahaha45 | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 |
| 243d | dgfrdg | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,852 | +$42 +2.2% | 20 |
| 243d | sdfes4 | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,882 | +$50 +2.6% | 20 |
| 243d | dgfh65cvb | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$30 +2.8% | 20 |
| 243d | ndfgdg22 | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$32 +3.0% | 20 |
| 243d | sfegf | March 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,843 | +$57 +3.1% | 20 |
| 244d | Xeny | February 28 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,705 | +$189 +11% | 20 |
| 244d | lisra | February 28 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$237 +21% | 20 |
| 244d |  PredictionYogi | February 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,388 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | lisra | April 20 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$50 −4.7% | — |
| 259d |  RealityChecker2 fills | January 31 | SellNo68¢ → 100¢ | $4,236 | −$1,951 −46% | — |
| 263d | 0x066D64FA7B2e352B9000A51C6b56F53128 | April 20 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | −$76 −5.3% | — |
| 265d | RealityChecker | January 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,368 | +$72 +5.3% | 20 |
| 265d |  MisterSandman | April 20 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | −$75 −5.3% | — |
| 265d | lisra2 fills | January 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,276 | +$119 +5.2% | 20 |
| 269d | Batundi3 fills | April 20 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,930 | +$85 +1.7% | 20 |
| 269d | mgips | January 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | +$212 +14% | 20 |
| 270d | GODyou | January 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,613 | +$407 +25% | 20 |
| 274d | hollyber | January 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,264 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 277d |  TREZOR-419 | January 15 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,513 | +$54 +2.2% | 20 |
| 279d | Exotic-Management | January 31 | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | +$1,270 +86% | 20 |
| 280d | PredictionYogi | January 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,720 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 280d |  ProfessionalPunter2 fills | January 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,293 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 284d |  Parz1vaI | January 9 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | +$41 +3.1% | 20 |
| 287d | 0x066D64FA7B2e352B9000A51C6b56F53128 | April 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$16 +1.1% | 20 |
| 290d | Batundi3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,367 | +$134 +0.9% | 20 |
| 290d | aviato | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 290d | Thin-Print6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $15,503 | +$1,132 +7.3% | 20 |
| 292d | diadjaid | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$274 +22% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 28 means the market gives it about 100%.