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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 4.5% | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4.8% | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4.6% | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4.3% | 100% | +13 pts | +55 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199d | ears | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,186 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 199d | ears | 4.8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,130 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 201d | pako | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,061 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 204d | Swan108 | 4.4% | SellYes>99¢ | $6,144 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 204d | shcc | 4.4% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,074 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 204d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | 4.4% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,036 | +$43 +0.7% | 4 |
| 204d | lizardcapital | 4.4% | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$87 +4.3% | 4 |
| 206d | Dar1us | 4.4% | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,496 | −$1,496 −100% | 6 |
| 217d | Swan108 | 4.4% | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,590 | +$2,065 +130% | 5 |
| 221d | RUN2017 | 5.0% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$16 +1.4% | 4 |
| 232d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul2 fills | 4.5% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,674 | +$130 +3.5% | 4 |
| 232d |  AdjunctBias | 4.4% | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $1,006 | −$1,006 −100% | 4 |
| 246d | 0xB16B00B5 | 4.5% | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,299 | +$128 +9.9% | 4 |
| 253d | AdjunctBias | 5.0% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,093 | +$60 +2.0% | 4 |
| 268d | AdjunctBias | 4.5% | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$328 +25% | 4 |
| 268d | AdjunctBias | 4.8% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$84 +6.4% | 4 |
| 268d | ourdemocracy | 5.0% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,476 | +$79 +5.4% | 4 |
| 268d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | 4.3% | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,134 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 268d |  hotpotato881 | 4.3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,702 | +$21 +0.6% | 4 |
| 270d | AdjunctBias | 4.5% | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | −$144 −12% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 4.4% means the market gives it about 100%.