ourdemocracy

Polymarket wallet 0x08c95f70b0565ee01fbb30705b61aa641616a2ef · on Polymarket since Jun 17, 2025 · also shown as Intent-Beck

Open on Polymarket ↗

Positions now worth: $35K
All-time profit: +$3.87K
Volume traded: $4.29M
All-time rank: #31,412
Markets traded: 639
Recent hit rate: 80%40 of last 50 closed

Open positions

69 markets · $35K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	8,951	88¢ → 88¢	$7,833	−$71 −0.9%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	3,049	91¢ → 92¢	$2,790	+$3 +0.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?Ends in 14d	No	2,718	97¢ → 98¢	$2,650	+$12 +0.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	2,000	94¢ → 93¢	$1,860	−$21 −1.1%
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	1,967	76¢ → 90¢	$1,770	+$285 +19%
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	No	1,627	96¢ → 98¢	$1,588	+$25 +1.6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?Ends in 74d	No	1,640	91¢ → 94¢	$1,534	+$46 +3.1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d	No	1,566	91¢ → 94¢	$1,471	+$48 +3.4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	1,500	95¢ → 98¢	$1,464	+$44 +3.1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	1,505	80¢ → 83¢	$1,242	+$39 +3.3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	1,504	79¢ → 76¢	$1,143	−$46 −3.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?Ends in 14d	No	1,000	98¢ → 99¢	$987	+$5 +0.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?Ends in 14d	No	1,000	99¢ → 96¢	$960	−$27 −2.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	892	83¢ → 84¢	$744	+$4 +0.6%
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	666	94¢ → 95¢	$630	+$6 +0.9%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $200 in October?Ends in 14d	No	650	97¢ → 95¢	$616	−$13 −2.1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Ends in 74d	No	555	87¢ → 90¢	$500	+$20 +4.1%
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Ends in 29d	No	510	90¢ → 97¢	$494	+$33 +7.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	500	93¢ → 96¢	$479	+$14 +3.1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	407	74¢ → 92¢	$372	+$69 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?Ends in 14d	No	300	97¢ → 98¢	$293	+$0 +0.1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in October?Ends in 14d	No	300	97¢ → 94¢	$282	−$10 −3.5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	321	93¢ → 87¢	$279	−$21 −7.1%
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	300	90¢ → 89¢	$267	−$3 −1.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	300	83¢ → 83¢	$249	$0 0.0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	No	289	97¢ → 81¢	$235	−$44 −16%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?Ends in 14d	No	200	96¢ → 99¢	$199	+$7 +3.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	200	93¢ → 97¢	$194	+$8 +4.5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	200	44¢ → 94¢	$188	+$100 +114%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	194	88¢ → 96¢	$187	+$17 +9.8%
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	183	98¢ → 99¢	$181	+$3 +1.6%
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	150	89¢ → 96¢	$144	+$10 +7.5%
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	166	68¢ → 80¢	$132	+$19 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?Ends in 14d	No	120	97¢ → 94¢	$112	−$4 −3.6%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d	Yes	388	35¢ → 28¢	$107	−$29 −21%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?Ends in 14d	No	100	95¢ → 98¢	$98	+$4 +3.7%
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	102	94¢ → 96¢	$98	+$2 +1.6%
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	100	95¢ → 95¢	$95	−$1 −0.5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?Ends in 14d	No	81	98¢ → 97¢	$78	−$1 −0.8%
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	85	87¢ → 82¢	$69	−$5 −6.8%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	100	56¢ → 67¢	$67	+$11 +19%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d	Yes	548	13¢ → 11¢	$58	−$14 −19%
RFK Jr. Out by October 31?Ends in 13d	No	57	98¢ → 97¢	$55	−$1 −1.3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	50	96¢ → 98¢	$49	+$1 +2.0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	50	96¢ → 98¢	$49	+$1 +1.6%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	38	92¢ → 99¢	$38	+$3 +8.0%
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Ends in 13d	Yes	30	98¢ → 98¢	$29	−$0 −0.5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	4	92¢ → 94¢	$4	+$0 +1.7%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?Ends in 75d	No	2	93¢ → 97¢	$2	+$0 +4.3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?Settled - ready to redeem	No	58	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$57 −100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	567	22¢ → 0¢	$0	−$125 −100%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem	No	8	34¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	153	6¢ → 0¢	$0	−$9 −100%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?Settled - ready to redeem	No	100	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$98 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	150	3¢ → 0¢	$0	−$5 −100%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem	No	79	86¢ → 0¢	$0	−$69 −100%
Will MrBeast hit 124 billion views by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem	No	38	97¢ → 0¢	$0	−$37 −100%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem	No	98	97¢ → 0¢	$0	−$95 −100%
Will Google reach $375 in April?Settled - ready to redeem	No	20	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$20 −100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?Settled - ready to redeem	No	100	97¢ → 0¢	$0	−$97 −100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	No	27	63¢ → 0¢	$0	−$17 −100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	No	100	94¢ → 0¢	$0	−$94 −100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem	No	304	72¢ → 0¢	$0	−$218 −100%
Will Amazon reach $260 in April?Settled - ready to redeem	No	66	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$65 −100%
Will MrBeast hit 124.5 billion views by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem	No	12	97¢ → 0¢	$0	−$12 −100%
Will Google reach $355 in April?Settled - ready to redeem	No	141	94¢ → 0¢	$0	−$132 −100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	16,658	<1¢ → 0¢	$0	−$50 −100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	1,000	<1¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Solana above $200 on August 15?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	200	55¢ → 0¢	$0	−$110 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
3d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?	BuyNo95¢	$95
5d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	SellNo96¢	$1,986
8d	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	BuyNo98¢	$983
8d	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$515
8d	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$972
8d	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?	BuyNo96¢	$48
8d	RFK Jr. Out by October 31?	BuyNo98¢	$56
8d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?	BuyNo94¢	$184
8d	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	BuyNo82¢	$411
10d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	SellNo97¢	$207
11d	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?	BuyNo98¢	$79
11d	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	BuyNo98¢	$293
11d	Will Solana dip to $80 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$292
11d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	BuyNo99¢	$987
11d	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$117
11d	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	BuyNo96¢	$192
11d	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$1,156
11d	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BuyNo91¢	$913
11d	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	BuyNo79¢	$80
11d	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	BuyNo83¢	$477
12d	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$92
12d	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$92
12d	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo98¢	$244
12d	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo98¢	$98
12d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	SellNo97¢	$26
13d	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $200 in October?	BuyNo97¢	$630
13d	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	BuyNo93¢	$103
13d	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	BuyNo83¢	$249
13d	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	BuyNo92¢	$112
13d	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	BuyNo81¢	$405
13d	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	BuyNo94¢	$470
13d	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	BuyNo91¢	$455
13d	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	BuyNo83¢	$263
13d	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	BuyNo94¢	$470
13d	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	BuyNo93¢	$187
13d	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	BuyNo95¢	$95
13d	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	BuyNo90¢	$270
13d	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	BuyNo95¢	$950
13d	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	BuyNo82¢	$656
13d	Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	BuyNo98¢	$178
13d	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	BuyNo95¢	$133
13d	Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	BuyNo94¢	$1,278
13d	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	BuyNo93¢	$465
13d	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	BuyNo97¢	$280
13d	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	BuyNo89¢	$268
13d	JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	BuyYes98¢	$29
13d	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by October 31?	BuyNo96¢	$48
13d	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	BuyNo95¢	$57
13d	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	BuyNo94¢	$457
13d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	BuyNo93¢	$388
13d	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo97¢	$428
15d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	SellNo97¢	$40
15d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	SellNo97¢	$1,348
15d	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo96¢	$744
15d	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$2,169
15d	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	SellNo96¢	$361
15d	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	BuyNo89¢	$2,449
15d	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	SellNo97¢	$1,280
22d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	SellNo80¢	$456
22d	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	SellNo4¢	$27

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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