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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475k+ | 100% | +44 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| <300k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300k–325k | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325k–350k | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350k–375k | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375k–400k | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400k–425k | 0% | −15 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425k–450k | 0% | −7 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450k–475k | 0% | −28 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107d | Leading-Clay | 475k+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,881 | −$22 −0.8% | — |
| 107d |  Rrrrrrrrlh | 475k+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,142 | −$83 −1.0% | — |
| 107d |  Gemini456 | 475k+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,428 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d |  BeneGesseritVoice | 475k+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $29,654 | +$149 +0.5% | 4 |
| 107d | fillit98 | 475k+ | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $5,820 | +$1,268 +22% | 4 |
| 107d | 0x07b79B1 | 475k+ | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,633 | +$703 +43% | 4 |
| 107d | coali10 | 475k+ | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | +$2,433 +103% | 4 |
| 107d |  Kalags | 475k+ | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,456 | −$1,456 −100% | 4 |
| 107d | foxwithlion2 fills | 400k–425k | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,952 | +$448 +7.5% | 4 |
| 107d | Pandaturbooo1688888 | 475k+ | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,614 | +$803 +50% | 4 |
| 108d | x84729153 | 475k+ | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,769 | +$865 +49% | 4 |
| 108d | H4OP995 fills | 475k+ | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $9,708 | +$7,695 +79% | 4 |
| 108d | VortexWatcher | 475k+ | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | +$705 +55% | 4 |
| 108d | Cashdagger2 fills | 475k+ | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $3,135 | +$3,880 +124% | 5 |
| 108d | Diligent-ElmNew account | 475k+ | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$1,603 +158% | 19 |
| 108d | Lk7600 | 475k+ | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $3,601 | +$5,681 +158% | 7 |
| 108d | Lk7600 | 475k+ | SellNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,693 | +$1,693 +100% | — |
| 110d | Nice-Shade | 475k+ | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,360 | −$1,360 −100% | 10 |
| 112d | Bigggggggg | 450k–475k | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | +$54 +5.2% | 5 |
| 112d | Bigggggggg | 350k–375k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 |
| 112d | Lk7600 | 400k–425k | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,382 | −$1,382 −100% | 9 |
| 112d | Bigggggggg | <300k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,101 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 112d | Bigggggggg | 300k–325k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 112d | fillit98 | 475k+ | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $2,730 | −$2,730 −100% | 5 |
| 115d | Cashdagger | 425k–450k | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$108 +9.9% | 5 |
| 192d | JoshuaBooth9573 | 400k–425k | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$309 +22% | 4 |
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN5,435 sharesThis market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 475k+ means the market gives it about 100%.