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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$100b | 100% | 0 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| $100–200b | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $200–500b | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $500b–1t | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $1–2t | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $2t+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d |  alpha.chen | <$100b | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 230d | cqs4 fills | <$100b | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $54,458 | +$479 +0.9% | 20 |
| 230d | Vital-Mathematics2 fills | <$100b | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,470 | +$30 +0.4% | 20 |
| 230d |  grazh | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,904 | −$96 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  mr.ozi | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,582 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  CoffeeLover2 fills | $200–500b | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,052 | −$36 −0.7% | — |
| 230d | CoffeeLover | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,985 | −$15 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  Jellow2 | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 230d | Amazing-Savory | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,960 | −$40 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  BeneGesseritVoice3 fills | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,883 | −$110 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  tunatyler | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,684 | −$46 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  Car | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 230d |  funding | <$100b | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,966 | −$34 −0.6% | — |
| 230d | Djibooty5 fills | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $13,523 | −$577 −4.3% | — |
| 230d |  pemul1s | <$100b | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,592 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly4 fills | <$100b | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $10,958 | +$586 +5.3% | 20 |
| 231d | rated6 fills | $500b–1t | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,256 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d |  Siuuuuuuuuu2 fills | <$100b | BuyYes>99¢ | $31,749 | +$67 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | $200–500b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,079 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | <$100b | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,078 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 231d | rated4 fills | $1–2t | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,204 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 231d |  Snow-White6 fills | <$100b | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $10,264 | +$6,802 +66% | 20 |
| 231d | influenz.eth22 fills | $100–200b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $37,923 | +$296 +0.8% | 20 |
| 231d | influenz.eth17 fills | $200–500b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $30,455 | +$179 +0.6% | 20 |
| 231d |  Outsid3rTrading | <$100b | SellYes>99¢ | $1,566 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 231d | rated2 fills | $100–200b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,101 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 231d | rated2 fills | $200–500b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 232d | wokerjoesleeper8 fills | $200–500b | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $14,500 | +$422 +2.9% | 20 |
| 232d | wokerjoesleeper7 fills | $100–200b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,240 | +$104 +0.8% | 20 |
| 232d | 165198989 | <$100b | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$26 +2.4% | 20 |
| 232d | Kroll703 | <$100b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | −$33 −2.4% | — |
| 232d | myy3423ed3 fills | <$100b | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,107 | +$68 +1.3% | 20 |
| 233d |  doubleone2 | <$100b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,950 | −$50 −1.7% | — |
| 233d |  AllByMyseIf | <$100b | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,171 | −$35 −1.6% | — |
| 234d | Vital-Mathematics | $200–500b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,920 | +$80 +1.0% | 20 |
| 234d | rated3 fills | $2t+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,153 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 234d | influenz.eth5 fills | $2t+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,903 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 234d | influenz.eth2 fills | $1–2t | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,692 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 234d |  bamesjond | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$40 −3.8% | — |
| 234d |  .yumeko | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,911 | −$75 −4.0% | — |
| 234d | SteviaDaddy | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,569 | −$100 −3.9% | — |
| 234d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,179 | −$271 −3.8% | — |
| 235d | Odysseus74 fills | <$100b | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $11,880 | +$1,462 +12% | 20 |
| 235d |  pup1 | <$100b | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,934 | −$66 −3.4% | — |
| 235d | influenz.eth6 fills | $500b–1t | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,536 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 236d | 0x0729A91138dbA9addc310D39F57aAd555371C50 | <$100b | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$40 +3.6% | 20 |
| 237d | MrMarket | $100–200b | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,089 | −$103 −2.0% | — |
| 239d |  .ethguy | <$100b | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,790 | −$210 −4.4% | — |
| 239d | floooo | <$100b | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,717 | +$83 +4.8% | 20 |
| 240d | 0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff2 fills | <$100b | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,707 | +$200 +7.4% | 20 |
| 240d | BeneGesseritVoice4 fills | <$100b | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,930 | +$549 +11% | 20 |
| 241d |  Anjun2 fills | <$100b | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,679 | +$206 +7.7% | 20 |
| 241d | Anjun | $200–500b | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,035 | +$126 +4.2% | 20 |
| 241d | Car | <$100b | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,868 | +$132 +7.1% | 20 |
| 241d | 0xD03CdFBAb84De34A9C365BE2198571E6fb5C3F4 | $100–200b | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | +$60 +2.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  residual | <$100b | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | +$93 +7.6% | 20 |
| 242d | 0xkeggle | <$100b | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | +$149 +10% | 20 |
| 242d | faust21century | <$100b | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,234 | −$146 −12% | — |
| 243d | Jellow2 | <$100b | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,641 | +$316 +12% | 20 |
| 243d |  0x8712 | <$100b | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | −$217 −12% | — |
Tenthirtyone1,146 shares
Warsh-Nightmare24,894 shares
thedialer13,104 sharesThe U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve according to the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <$100b means the market gives it about 100%.