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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +1 pts | −10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d | 3.3.3 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,864 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,915 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 230d | Apro-367 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,547 | −$52 −0.7% | — |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,678 | +$59 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 230d | Doriath | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes100¢ | $2,000 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 230d | alexander2000 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | −$20 −1.0% | — |
| 230d | intwit | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$17 −1.7% | — |
| 230d | Apro-367 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,487 | +$112 +1.5% | 20 |
| 230d | cashy4 fills | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,687 | +$255 +2.0% | 20 |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$54 +3.3% | 20 | |
| 230d | generalVR11 fills | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $23,813 | +$307 +1.3% | 20 |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,677 | −$447 −6.7% | — | |
| 230d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,619 | −$148 −2.6% | — | |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,215 | +$15 +1.2% | 20 | |
| 231d | apple-pi | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,495 | +$139 +2.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Trustinghorse | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | −$16 −0.9% | — | |
| 231d | IbnKhaldun3 fills | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,912 | +$57 +0.8% | 20 |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$67 +1.5% | 20 | |
| 231d | Rephael1 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,596 | +$45 +0.8% | 20 |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,215 | +$99 +3.1% | 20 | |
| 231d | Huludubu | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,439 | +$561 +23% | 20 |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $3,058 | −$1,386 −45% | — | |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $8,351 | +$6,038 +72% | 20 | |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo36¢ → 0¢ | $1,602 | −$1,602 −100% | 21 | |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,757 | −$1,123 −64% | — | |
| 231d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $2,284 | −$2,284 −100% | 20 | |
| 233d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,185 | −$1,185 −100% | 21 | |
| 234d | misko12 fills | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $5,180 | −$5,180 −100% | 21 |
| 234d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $4,206 | −$4,206 −100% | 21 | |
| 235d | Brokeboy7 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $2,235 | −$2,235 −100% | 21 |
| 243d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,432 | +$1,432 +100% | — | |
| 248d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $2,396 | −$2,396 −100% | 20 | |
| 252d | lichong358 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $2,087 | −$2,087 −100% | 20 |
| 255d | yyyyyyy2 fills | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellNo78¢ → 0¢ | $3,694 | +$3,694 +100% | — |
| 256d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | SellNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,407 | +$1,407 +100% | — | |
| 256d | MoonLambo1205 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $3,026 | −$3,026 −100% | 20 |
| 257d | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,811 | −$1,811 −100% | 20 | |
| 260d | CameronMoore | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 20 |
| 264d | Admirable-Poem | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.