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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 20 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 28 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 27 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 21 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 29 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 30 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 18 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 19 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 22 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 23 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 24 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 25 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 26 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199d | qwe258 | March 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 199d | Sonix | March 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,039 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 200d | KakiBatusik | March 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,075 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | cashy | March 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,716 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 200d | Nbest55 | March 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,394 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 200d | greengasper | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 201d | March 29 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | −$52 −4.8% | — | |
| 202d | March 29 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | +$23 +1.7% | 20 | |
| 202d | qwe258 | March 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 202d | CocoBambino2 fills | March 28 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,813 | −$32 −1.1% | — |
| 202d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 202d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $168,579 | −$169 −0.1% | — | |
| 202d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,212 | −$24 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,848 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | d83eb0F | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,417 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $28,494 | −$52 −0.2% | — | |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,073 | −$15 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | greengasper | March 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 203d | stealer3 fills | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,712 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,396 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | Test669 | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,070 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,834 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | wowdontrug | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,629 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 203d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,377 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 203d | ChampaLiberation3 fills | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,991 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 204d | CocoBambino | March 27 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,353 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 204d | March 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,080 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 204d | Trustinghorse3 fills | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,392 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 204d | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $93,025 | +$93 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 204d | dmg | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,306 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 204d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $99,700 | −$300 −0.3% | — | |
| 204d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,501 | −$4 −0.3% | — | |
| 204d | loser124 | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,405 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 204d | greenfiend | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,219 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 204d | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $36,656 | +$73 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 204d | discombobulated-chicken | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,982 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | ChampaLiberation4 fills | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,976 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,179 | −$4 −0.3% | — | |
| 205d | CocoBambino | March 26 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,255 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 205d | March 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,349 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 205d | cashy | March 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,592 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | Michael52892 fills | March 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,979 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 205d | Sonix | March 26 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,203 | +$69 +1.6% | 20 |
| 205d | Israeli-guys | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,681 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | randomlypunting | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,345 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,402 | −$13 −0.3% | — | |
| 205d | trad342913 | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,133 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | March 20 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $4,375 | −$2,816 −64% | — | |
| 205d | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,285 | +$39 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 205d | d83eb0F | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,415 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | CocoBambino | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,905 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,985 | −$15 −0.3% | — | |
| 205d | UKnowNothingJonSnow | March 20 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,964 | −$27 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | yougotme | March 20 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,245 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 205d | garbagefriends | March 20 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,001 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 205d | March 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,001 | +$82 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 205d | Querulous-Belt | March 20 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 205d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | March 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 205d | jdcgo | March 20 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,689 | −$61 −0.9% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 20 means the market gives it about 100%.