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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $40,451 | +$337 +0.8% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,822 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 378d | Alder | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 378d | pantomime | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,294 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,165 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 378d | k00pa2 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,100 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 378d | Qtyu3 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,835 | +$45 +0.5% | 20 |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $47,750 | −$409 −0.9% | — | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $32,452 | +$227 +0.7% | 20 | |
| 378d | ALLOWMETOSHOWU1 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,747 | +$46 +0.8% | 20 |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — | |
| 378d | ganatalak2 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,702 | +$41 +0.9% | 20 |
| 378d | Generator | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,598 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 378d | ganatalak2 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,506 | −$39 −1.1% | — |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,215 | +$22 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $21,380 | +$210 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,181 | +$62 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,600 | −$198 −1.0% | — | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,332 | +$243 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,117 | +$41 +1.3% | 20 | |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,925 | −$75 −1.5% | — | |
| 378d | wisser | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,980 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 378d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,471 | +$61 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 379d | PharaohWrath | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,827 | +$49 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 379d | DrumtongTiger2 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,506 | +$28 +0.3% | 20 |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,775 | −$11 −0.3% | — | |
| 379d | Trader100012 fills | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,214 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,214 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,469 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,903 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 379d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,477 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 380d | funguy1988 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 380d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,841 | +$35 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 380d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,261 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 380d | fafsaee | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 380d | 5551ab | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | +$14 +1.3% | 20 |
| 380d | 854A7843 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,749 | +$25 +1.4% | 20 |
| 380d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $28,428 | +$812 +2.9% | 20 | |
| 380d | CanadianGoose | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,029 | +$150 +1.7% | 20 |
| 381d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,301 | +$246 +2.0% | 20 |
| 381d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,161 | +$44 +2.0% | 20 | |
| 381d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,906 | +$67 +2.3% | 20 | |
| 381d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,339 | +$73 +3.1% | 21 |
On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between September 30 and October 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.