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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | — | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76d |  elmcap22 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,646 | +$243 +5.2% | 2 |
| 183d |  Zarshka | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,643 | +$197 +7.4% | 2 |
| 193d |  DEGENKHAN | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,289 | +$111 +8.7% | 2 |
| 207d | asendubpo | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,044 | −$116 −11% | — |
| 222d | Orange-Seep | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,496 | −$148 −9.9% | — |
| 222d | Ryan13652 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $4,599 | −$477 −10% | — |
| 230d |  DaOnepiece | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,013 | −$100 −9.9% | — |
| 237d | DaOnepiece | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,024 | +$89 +8.7% | 2 |
| 239d | Crushing-Jazz2 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 97¢ | $2,464 | −$244 −9.9% | — |
| 239d | Crushing-Jazz2 fills | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,492 | +$216 +8.7% | 2 |
| 240d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyYes11¢ → 3¢ | $1,958 | −$1,371 −70% | 7 |
| 246d |  Anjun | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $6,088 | +$602 +9.9% | 2 |
| 253d |  bau7 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,308 | +$129 +9.9% | 2 |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly7,688 shares
Wojtek3,181 shareselmcap28,410 sharesAnjun8,074 shares
SongXiaoFeng1,000 shares
XieGuangKun705 shares
allenzzz522 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 3%.