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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | +2 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +1 pts | +27 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 30 | 100% | +1 pts | +74 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 29 | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 30 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 28 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 26 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 27 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 11 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 12 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 13 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 14 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 16 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 17 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 18 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 21 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 22 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 187d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | April 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | Ordon | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $44,443 | +$45 +0.1% | 20 |
| 187d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b044 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,590 | +$76 +0.5% | 20 |
| 187d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b045 fills | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,228 | +$95 +0.3% | 20 |
| 187d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b043 fills | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,659 | +$60 +0.7% | 20 |
| 188d |  dotethguy | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,126 | +$27 +1.3% | 20 |
| 188d | LulaVaiPerder | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,093 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 188d |  CaptainCoinflip | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,783 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 188d |  scout | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,989 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 188d | scout | May 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,201 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 188d | scout | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,874 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 188d |  HolyMoses7 | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,298 | +$16 +0.7% | 20 |
| 189d | CaptainCoinflip | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,769 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 189d | aviato2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,042 | +$38 +0.8% | 20 |
| 189d | Trustinghorse3 fills | April 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $15,424 | +$250 +1.6% | 20 |
| 189d | Trustinghorse | May 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,483 | +$26 +1.0% | 20 |
| 189d | Trustinghorse | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,334 | +$116 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d |  Ahpo | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,915 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d | Ahpo | May 31 | BuyYes100¢ | $4,975 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 190d | idkwhatimdoinggg2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,565 | +$39 +0.8% | 20 |
| 190d | Spiffy-Hold | April 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | +$22 +1.2% | 20 |
| 190d | CaptainCoinflip2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,654 | +$33 +1.2% | 20 |
| 190d | CaptainCoinflip | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,771 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 190d | idkwhatimdoinggg | May 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
| 191d | Trustinghorse | April 15 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | +$133 +13% | 20 |
| 191d | phsr | May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | +$79 +6.6% | 20 |
| 194d | Nippy-Mobility | April 15 | SellNo92¢ → 0¢ | $1,240 | +$1,240 +100% | — |
| 196d | superblueinc | April 15 | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $1,035 | −$1,035 −100% | 20 |
| 197d | Stiff-Jicama | April 15 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | +$1,500 +100% | — |
| 199d | Nippy-Mobility | April 15 | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 20 |
| 199d | Wowiwow | June 30 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$230 +22% | 20 |
| 200d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,867 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 201d | Nifty-Sorbet | March 31 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,836 | −$991 −20% | — |
| 201d | 0xe617…f251 | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$18 +1.2% | 20 |
| 202d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd2 fills | March 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,694 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | 0xe617…f251 | March 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$73 +1.5% | 20 |
| 203d | 0xe617…f251 | March 29 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 203d | Innocent-Terrapin | March 29 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,874 | +$39 +1.0% | 20 |
| 203d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd2 fills | March 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,882 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | March 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,512 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 204d | 0xe617…f251 | March 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$16 +1.1% | 20 |
| 204d |  KatieSprygada1 | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,225 | +$117 +5.3% | 20 |
| 204d | 0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | March 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,546 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 204d | Guccibala | March 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$258 +10% | 21 |
| 205d |  ping0125 | March 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,073 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | HolyMoses7 | March 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,993 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d | 0xe617…f251 | March 26 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$80 +2.7% | 20 |
| 207d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 25 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 207d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,722 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | texture | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,386 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | oidoioi | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,658 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,412 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,124 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | scout2 fills | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,805 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | March 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,113 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 208d | ping0125 | March 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 208d | llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | March 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,260 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 209d | mollrodel | March 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,845 | +$292 +7.6% | 20 |
| 209d | mollrodel | March 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 210d | ping0125 | March 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,210 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
Catumi1,002 shares
kkdays548 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 15 means the market gives it about 100%.