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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothée Chalamet | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Michael B. Jordan | 100% | +6 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Wagner Moura | 100% | +11 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Joaquin Phoenix | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Joel Edgerton | 0% | −9 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Dwayne Johnson | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jesse Plemons | 0% | −40 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lee Byung-hun | 0% | −4 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Matthew McConaughey | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Denzel Washington | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Brad Pitt | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| George Clooney | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Paul Mescal | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ethan Hawke | 100% | +27 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Brendan Fraser | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jeremy Allen White | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Daniel Day-Lewis | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Colin Farrell | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Willem Dafoe | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 267d |  mioki2 fills | Brad Pitt | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,895 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 267d |  ZhangMuZhi..7 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $61,709 | +$62 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d | anonymus83 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,859 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d | 111222 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,981 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 267d | LBZone3 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,725 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Lean-Pelt | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d |  zzzx22 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,987 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | Lukyyyyyyy | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | ForFamily2 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $81,471 | +$82 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | ForFamily | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,206 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | anonymus8 | Willem Dafoe | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,918 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | anonymus8 | Daniel Day-Lewis | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,638 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | ballboy95 | Jesse Plemons | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,293 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 268d | LBZone | Brendan Fraser | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,272 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | valmier | Paul Mescal | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,112 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | ballboy95 | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d | valmier | Lee Byung-hun | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,820 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 268d |  humbleBaker | Lee Byung-hun | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 268d | 11122 | Wagner Moura | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,574 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 268d | RIU8 | Michael B. Jordan | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | +$88 +4.2% | 20 |
| 268d | RIU8 | Leonardo DiCaprio | SellYes>99¢ | $2,108 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 268d | amanc3 fills | Wagner Moura | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,171 | +$281 +8.9% | 20 |
| 269d | sylv132 fills | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,123 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d |  macrosteaks | Brad Pitt | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | −$11 −0.8% | — |
| 269d | sylv132 fills | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,556 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 269d | BISTURI | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,263 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | pilorget | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,457 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 269d | asfasfasfqqwr452gdg | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,420 | +$38 +0.7% | 20 |
| 269d | hqwagfa | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,851 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 269d | jdmnbdt | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,805 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 269d | ywthsfgbs | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,765 | +$12 +0.7% | 20 |
| 270d | jawrjjfgaszx45321345 | Denzel Washington | SellNo100¢ | $5,416 | −$27 −0.5% | — |
| 270d | jawrjjfgaszx45321345 | Denzel Washington | BuyNo100¢ | $5,416 | +$27 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | qkvzxsl45fgh | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,629 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | asfiopkjkjk4sa | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,662 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | gadgqe34da5g3 | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,662 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | jafsfiaorqw11-5tgasd | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,629 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | lfoncvzasf5fsas | Matthew McConaughey | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,645 | +$24 +0.9% | 20 |
| 270d | ghjasfias58hgads | Matthew McConaughey | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,663 | +$24 +0.9% | 20 |
| 270d | aadlr2gs0og54 | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,527 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 270d | unbpetd5ihqy8 | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,523 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 270d | gasjkfqga42sa | Matthew McConaughey | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,685 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 270d | qavxzolaksf35101aa | Matthew McConaughey | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,637 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 270d | lmnjiqsaz7821asff | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,538 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | jfakfuo12ioasdfga | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,647 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | gdsgwe4235gsfsd | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,647 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 270d | fjasfaswqp42gsdsa | Joaquin Phoenix | BuyNo100¢ | $2,538 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 271d | otpdfwqcs5q4w | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,291 | +$48 +0.9% | 20 |
| 271d | ejjlw4ycbssv6 | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,282 | +$48 +0.9% | 20 |
| 274d | tqudnpiin2z05 | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,268 | +$42 +0.8% | 20 |
| 274d | mvjve3e0791ep | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,248 | +$42 +0.8% | 20 |
| 277d | DBomb | Wagner Moura | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$259 +8.6% | 20 |
| 277d | Matelleti | Leonardo DiCaprio | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 278d | sweetj | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,604 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 278d | web1ers | Joel Edgerton | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | +$171 +15% | 20 |
| 280d | Lolololol | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,993 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 281d | Lolololol | Michael B. Jordan | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,955 | +$195 +3.9% | 20 |
| 288d | Another-Allowance | Timothée Chalamet | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 288d | Another-Allowance | Leonardo DiCaprio | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,292 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 288d | mwenya | Brad Pitt | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
JessieShakespeare1 sharesThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Timothée Chalamet means the market gives it about 100%.