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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 8% | −8 pts | −6 pts | 6¢ · 9¢ (3¢) | $790 | in 15d |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
Dr.PNL200 shares
2B9S34 shares
Giorgio2271 shares
memetal265 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 8¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 8%.