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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1T+ | 100% | +1 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 439d |
| <500B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| 500B–600B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| 600B–700B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| 700B–800B | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| 800B–900B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| 900B–1T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| No IPO before 2028 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 439d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126d | Liquidifier2 fills | 1T+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $34,544 | +$394 +1.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Dafu07158 fills | 1T+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $67,521 | +$214 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 600B–700B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,806 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 800B–900B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,082 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 127d |  Mei-ji | 600B–700B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,982 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | QMG-CORE5 fills | No IPO before 2028 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,087 | +$139 +0.9% | 20 |
| 127d | QMG-CORE | 500B–600B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,901 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | QMG-VOL | No IPO before 2028 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | QMG-SCALAR | No IPO before 2028 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 128d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 1T+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$7 +0.7% | 20 |
| 128d | danielleggerman | 1T+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,422 | +$45 +1.0% | 20 |
| 128d | lontou | 1T+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,812 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 129d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 900B–1T | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,804 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,136 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | Corrupt-Lark | No IPO before 2028 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,644 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 131d | enrico-vasaio | 900B–1T | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,746 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 131d | lisra2 fills | 1T+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,118 | −$61 −0.5% | — |
| 132d | Larry883 fills | 1T+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,935 | −$93 −1.2% | — |
| 139d | Luckyjoe | 1T+ | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,677 | −$30 −1.8% | — |
| 141d | baofu168 | 1T+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,559 | +$33 +2.1% | 20 |
| 141d | mmmbop | 1T+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
| 150d | QMG-CORE | 1T+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,526 | +$40 +2.6% | 20 |
| 150d | ImHereForTheRewards | 1T+ | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $3,315 | −$685 −21% | — |
| 152d | QMG-MACRO | No IPO before 2028 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 152d | nelbal8486 | 1T+ | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$28 +2.6% | 20 |
| 153d | lisra | No IPO before 2028 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,168 | −$77 −1.5% | — |
| 153d | lontou2 fills | 1T+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,857 | +$321 +5.5% | 20 |
| 154d |  flamingfish2 fills | 1T+ | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,367 | +$760 +17% | 20 |
| 165d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul5 fills | 1T+ | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $29,667 | +$2,650 +8.9% | 20 |
| 170d | nublet | 1T+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$83 +6.4% | 20 |
| 177d | Brilliant-Pancake2 fills | 1T+ | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $17,004 | −$1,085 −6.4% | — |
| 184d | Noobtrades | 1T+ | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,259 | −$254 −7.8% | — |
| 186d |  thegamblor69 | 500B–600B | SellNo>99¢ | $4,939 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 186d | thegamblor69 | 500B–600B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,950 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 201d | CallahanMalone | 700B–800B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,194 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 201d | CallahanMalone | 700B–800B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | AlayaRamos | 700B–800B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | LianDaniels | 700B–800B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | AmaraCarrillo | 700B–800B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 201d | ArtemisDominguez | 700B–800B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,243 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | Trustworthy-OffsetNew account | <500B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,037 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 205d | Trustworthy-OffsetNew account | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | Rigid-TornadoNew account | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | Burdensome-BackNew account | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | Subdued-FillNew account | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,038 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | SonnieCook2 fills | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,066 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | VinnieAdams2 fills | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,036 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | ShayaHoward2 fills | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,038 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | LianDelarosa2 fills | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,018 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | NancyStewart2 fills | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,140 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | PeytonRomero | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | ArjunWheeler | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | PiperWeaver | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | KitWilliams | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,112 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | IzaiahPeters | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,088 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | DwanRasmussen | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | AdiGreen | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,080 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | HonorTorres | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,081 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | GianniHernandez | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,084 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 205d | AddisynSmith | <500B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,080 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
baek-ahjin8,888 shares
foodenjoyer3,942 shares
TheRedChip2,608 sharesThis market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1T+ means the market gives it about 100%.