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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | −5 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 31 | 100% | +75 pts | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 100% | +56 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 7 | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 168d | jayzzz313027598 | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,649 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Dark-Spectacle | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Dark-Spectacle | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,409 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 168d |  finder16 | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,299 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | xoxoxo888 | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,596 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | Pajamapants | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $135,223 | −$135 −0.1% | — |
| 168d |  beenraping2 fills | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,489 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | 0xef9f…79ee2 fills | June 30 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $13,975 | −$977 −7.0% | — |
| 168d |  AgricultureSecretary | June 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,549 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | paperhandedfool4 fills | June 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $37,147 | +$55 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d | 0xef9f…79ee4 fills | June 30 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $10,155 | +$1,296 +13% | 20 |
| 168d |  timemachinee | May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,042 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 168d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly6 fills | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $83,867 | +$4,094 +4.9% | 20 |
| 168d | AgricultureSecretary | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,488 | +$67 +1.2% | 20 |
| 168d | denizz | June 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,988 | +$40 +1.4% | 20 |
| 168d |  yungstalin3 fills | June 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $12,290 | +$1,274 +10% | 20 |
| 168d | AgricultureSecretary3 fills | May 31 | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $7,799 | +$8,256 +106% | 21 |
| 168d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | May 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $14,588 | −$498 −3.4% | — |
| 168d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | June 30 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $18,877 | −$613 −3.2% | — |
| 168d |  MajoriT2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,512 | +$164 +3.6% | 20 |
| 168d | yungstalin6 fills | May 31 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $56,265 | +$13,797 +25% | 20 |
| 168d | Test669 | May 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,936 | +$64 +3.3% | 20 |
| 168d |  whybing | May 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | −$49 −3.6% | — |
| 168d |  Debosnys | June 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,014 | +$281 +2.5% | 20 |
| 168d | denizz4 fills | May 31 | BuyYes42¢ → 100¢ | $64,773 | +$90,844 +140% | 27 |
| 168d |  aenews26 fills | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $50,817 | +$1,384 +2.7% | 20 |
| 168d |  BoniBoni2 fills | May 31 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $12,195 | −$3,293 −27% | — |
| 168d | Plush-Budget | May 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,060 | −$128 −4.2% | — |
| 168d |  MisTKy4 fills | May 31 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $19,950 | −$1,556 −7.8% | — |
| 168d |  QuarterlyComeback2 fills | May 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,338 | −$131 −3.9% | — |
| 168d | finder162 fills | June 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,234 | +$205 +2.8% | 20 |
| 168d | 0xef9f…79ee | May 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,379 | −$55 −4.0% | — |
| 168d | Runaround | May 31 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $21,033 | −$870 −4.1% | — |
| 168d | timemachinee3 fills | May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,071 | +$244 +6.0% | 20 |
| 168d | QuarterlyComeback | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$110 +5.5% | 20 |
| 168d | 0xef9f…79ee2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,736 | +$264 +5.6% | 20 |
| 168d |  SwampDust | May 31 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,841 | −$210 −7.4% | — |
| 168d | 881112 | May 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,283 | +$322 +7.5% | 20 |
| 168d |  wish- | May 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | +$117 +8.4% | 20 |
| 168d | Poortorich6 fills | May 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $10,420 | −$909 −8.7% | — |
| 168d | bearbees25 fills | May 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $16,718 | +$2,019 +12% | 20 |
| 168d | Runaround2 fills | June 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $8,492 | +$538 +6.3% | 20 |
| 168d | Djibooty | May 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,835 | −$165 −9.0% | — |
| 168d | Nobody23041 | May 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,873 | −$153 −8.2% | — |
| 168d | Nobody23041 | May 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$80 +7.5% | 20 |
| 168d | SleeperHunter5 fills | May 31 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $34,735 | −$3,159 −9.1% | — |
| 168d | Pajamapants5 fills | May 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $43,505 | +$3,257 +7.5% | 20 |
| 168d | finder16 | May 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | +$153 +8.7% | 20 |
| 168d | Runaround3 fills | May 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $14,243 | +$1,138 +8.0% | 20 |
| 168d | SwampDust | May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,800 | +$177 +6.3% | 20 |
| 168d | denizz | May 31 | BuyNo9¢ → 0¢ | $5,681 | −$5,681 −100% | 33 |
| 168d |  heganio | May 31 | BuyNo8¢ → 0¢ | $1,060 | −$1,060 −100% | 20 |
| 168d | whybing | May 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | +$90 +6.7% | 20 |
| 168d | 0xdamocles2 fills | May 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $20,049 | +$951 +4.7% | 20 |
| 168d | SleeperHunter2 fills | June 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $7,133 | −$382 −5.4% | — |
| 168d | MisTKy5 fills | May 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $32,104 | +$4,907 +15% | 20 |
| 168d |  MEPP | May 31 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,003 | −$123 −6.2% | — |
| 168d | MEPP2 fills | June 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $10,893 | −$568 −5.2% | — |
| 168d | Wiry-Ptarmigan | June 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$71 −4.8% | — |
| 168d | Nobody23041 | June 30 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | −$94 −5.0% | — |
Erasmus.219,664 shares
tetrose58,412 shares
skyone2736 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 30 means the market gives it about 0%.