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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290d |  morphium | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$6 +0.5% | 4 |
| 290d | Giseda | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 297d | forinnerpsandr1x11222 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,326 | +$37 +0.7% | 4 |
| 298d |  garlictrump2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,116 | −$184 −5.9% | — |
| 306d |  ScottyNooo | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,386 | +$110 +2.0% | 4 |
| 309d | nonkenny90 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$34 +3.2% | 4 |
| 317d | Giseda | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$100 +6.7% | 4 |
| 329d |  DFK | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | −$121 −11% | — |
| 334d | Scoofy-Bubik | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,022 | +$63 +3.1% | 4 |
| 336d | cezarn132 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,077 | −$357 −7.0% | — |
| 365d |  BuckMySalls5 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $20,255 | −$4,446 −22% | — |
| 388d |  Car | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,861 | +$139 +7.5% | 4 |
| 405d |  DonAntimatter | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | −$196 −11% | — |
| 406d | GhostOfKiev | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,059 | +$80 +7.5% | 4 |
| 407d |  RaraAnzai2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$547 +14% | 4 |
| 409d | DonAntimatter | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,769 | +$241 +14% | 4 |
| 417d |  Mr-Krabs2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,471 | +$702 +28% | 4 |
| 420d | 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B92 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $5,640 | +$1,460 +26% | 4 |
| 422d |  TealV | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | +$525 +36% | 4 |
| 424d | BuckMySalls9 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $23,092 | +$13,298 +58% | 4 |
| 425d | Blockban | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes29¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 6 |
| 427d |  scottilicious2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $3,731 | +$1,003 +27% | 4 |
| 431d | Remote-Aglet | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$620 +31% | 4 |
| 432d | KrackenSruster5 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $8,551 | −$3,589 −42% | — |
| 433d | cqs2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,464 | +$1,081 +44% | 4 |
| 434d | CrashOverride95 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,314 | +$352 +27% | 4 |
| 435d |  KazLC | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,929 | −$453 −23% | — |
| 436d |  DumplingBMF | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | −$117 −10% | — |
| 441d | KazLC | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,162 | +$220 +10% | 4 |
| 458d | cezarn132 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$734 +16% | 4 |
| 459d | maria.masullo | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | −$337 −18% | — |
| 460d | maria.masullo | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $4,350 | +$650 +15% | 4 |
| 480d |  How.Dare.You | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$236 +18% | 4 |
| 480d | eastpak | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,262 | −$338 −15% | — |
| 499d |  x35602 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $6,667 | +$1,733 +26% | 4 |
| 501d | Quinex | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellYes27¢ → 0¢ | $14,522 | +$14,522 +100% | — |
| 501d | Crexa | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $38,727 | +$15,060 +39% | 4 |
| 527d | KrackenSruster3 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $4,410 | +$1,976 +45% | 4 |
| 530d | WhaleZone | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $2,788 | −$2,788 −100% | 7 |
| 540d | ELICHOU | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo58¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | +$841 +73% | 4 |
| 543d | amused85 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$577 +52% | 4 |
| 544d | eastpak | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$583 +54% | 4 |
| 566d | 7Embers | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,279 | −$1,279 −100% | 5 |
| 569d | BowlofCheese | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,209 | −$1,209 −100% | 4 |
| 572d | chil999 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,002 | −$1,002 −100% | 4 |
| 575d | jiyge2 fills | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellYes34¢ → 0¢ | $2,429 | +$2,429 +100% | — |
| 582d | jiyge | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 4 |
| 598d | Mythraen | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellYes39¢ → 0¢ | $41,285 | +$41,285 +100% | — |
| 598d | 0xf53b…9c48 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $65,640 | +$40,231 +61% | 4 |
| 599d | Zyphiel | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | SellNo63¢ → 100¢ | $54,882 | −$32,233 −59% | — |
| 599d | Zyphiel | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $54,882 | +$32,233 +59% | 4 |
| 601d |  YourWiin | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,817 | −$1,817 −100% | 6 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.