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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | −76 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246d | Maktouch-105 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,537 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,495 | −$7 −0.1% | — | |
| 246d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — | |
| 247d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $59,956 | +$71 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 247d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,682 | +$153 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 247d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $21,788 | −$44 −0.2% | — | |
| 248d | cripes32 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,077 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | VorpalQuark | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,896 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | 10KWarrior5 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,181 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | sugertime3 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,770 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | godgivennow3 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,289 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 248d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,626 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 249d | Ojeby | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,820 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,043 | +$58 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 249d | 123412341234 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,180 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,231 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $21,642 | −$65 −0.3% | — | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,071 | −$16 −0.3% | — | |
| 249d | wwwsszxa | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,087 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,980 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 249d | Palace8709 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo100¢ | $6,047 | −$30 −0.5% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $29,787 | +$167 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 249d | yougotme2 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,741 | +$244 +1.3% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$21 +2.0% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $46,536 | +$470 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 249d | timzh | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | −$35 −3.4% | — |
| 249d | gremlingoblin | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | −$55 −3.3% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | −$35 −2.8% | — | |
| 249d | ForgetAboutBenjamin2 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,792 | +$144 +2.1% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,483 | +$125 +1.9% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,624 | +$157 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 249d | Trustinghorse4 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,802 | +$277 +1.3% | 20 |
| 249d | Palace87092 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,997 | +$81 +1.3% | 20 |
| 249d | 1walrus | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | +$20 +1.6% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,639 | +$42 +1.6% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,573 | −$73 −2.0% | — | |
| 249d | b3tm0re2 fills | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,500 | +$41 +0.6% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,866 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,694 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,072 | −$62 −0.9% | — | |
| 249d | Boring-Bronco | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | −$15 −1.1% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,690 | −$64 −0.8% | — | |
| 249d | Mikelaawrey | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,270 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 249d | dube | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,810 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 249d | LBZone | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,648 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,854 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 249d | pooperr | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$27 −2.2% | — |
| 249d | Kazan2 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,914 | −$686 −9.9% | — |
| 249d | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$87 +8.7% | 20 | |
| 249d | Querulous-Hurt | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,619 | −$111 −6.9% | — |
| 249d | AlwaysLost | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | −$212 −17% | — |
| 249d | pooperr | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$153 +14% | 20 |
| 249d | Sonix | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,788 | +$371 +21% | 20 |
| 250d | Heb6keawuempunos097 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | +$429 +27% | 20 |
| 251d | Miojinho | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | +$673 +54% | 20 |
| 251d | lgtnb23 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | SellYes38¢ → 0¢ | $1,520 | +$1,520 +100% | — |
| 251d | Kazan2 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,090 | +$1,102 +101% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and government sources. This market may remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.