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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 or later | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Q2 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| Q3 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Q4 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 654d | longtern | Q4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,943 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 654d |  pirateshere | Q4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,318 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 654d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | 2025 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,795 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 654d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Q4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,660 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 663d | polywog | Q4 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,514 | −$48 −1.4% | — |
| 665d | surf2 fills | 2025 or later | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,239 | +$118 +3.6% | 20 |
| 666d | polywog | Q4 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,137 | +$167 +3.3% | 20 |
| 666d | surf | Q4 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,209 | +$145 +4.5% | 20 |
| 666d | Stason | Q4 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$66 +5.2% | 20 |
| 668d |  ComeBackOrBust | Q4 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$92 +4.6% | 20 |
| 670d | Certify0148 | Q4 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,615 | −$276 −6.0% | — |
| 670d | cigarettes | Q4 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,406 | +$164 +6.8% | 20 |
| 672d | BobbyMan2 fills | Q4 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $14,398 | −$759 −5.3% | — |
| 676d | BobbyMan2 fills | Q4 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $14,394 | +$921 +6.4% | 20 |
| 678d | jj053 fills | Q4 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $32,270 | +$1,934 +6.0% | 20 |
| 679d | nicp | Q4 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$91 +7.2% | 20 |
| 679d | Certify0148 | Q4 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,868 | +$474 +12% | 20 |
| 679d | wokerjoesleeper | Q4 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,556 | +$173 +11% | 20 |
| 690d |  password2 fills | 2025 or later | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $4,909 | −$1,418 −29% | — |
| 695d | lesse2 fills | 2025 or later | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $3,984 | −$1,405 −35% | — |
| 695d | lesse2 fills | 2025 or later | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $4,317 | +$597 +14% | 20 |
| 695d | SupremeRussian | Q4 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,890 | −$110 −5.8% | — |
| 696d | lesse3 fills | 2025 or later | SellNo16¢ → 0¢ | $5,215 | +$5,215 +100% | — |
| 700d | lesse3 fills | 2025 or later | BuyNo19¢ → 0¢ | $6,477 | −$6,477 −100% | 31 |
| 700d | SupremeRussian | Q4 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,614 | +$105 +6.5% | 20 |
| 705d | anon15652 fills | Q4 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $11,526 | −$1,042 −9.0% | — |
| 705d | anon1565 | 2025 or later | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,947 | −$169 −8.7% | — |
| 707d | schwasi | 2025 or later | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,762 | +$208 +7.5% | 20 |
| 711d |  carp | Q4 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,738 | −$151 −8.7% | — |
| 713d | Powerful-Citrus | Q4 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$107 −9.2% | — |
| 715d |  Car | 2025 or later | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,441 | −$159 −11% | — |
| 716d | Car2 fills | 2025 or later | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,615 | +$255 +9.7% | 20 |
| 716d | GPT69 | Q4 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$244 +12% | 20 |
| 716d | Bambinio | 2025 or later | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,381 | +$127 +9.2% | 20 |
| 716d | Gimmaer | 2025 or later | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$452 +41% | 20 |
| 716d | Majneklej | Q4 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$410 +37% | 20 |
| 718d | ShyLOCKz | 2025 or later | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | −$799 −67% | — |
| 719d | 0x2370…0e10 | 2025 or later | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,197 | −$590 −49% | — |
| 719d |  Charmie | 2025 or later | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | −$703 −47% | — |
| 721d | JustZen | 2025 or later | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | +$477 +41% | 20 |
| 722d |  ImJustKen | 2025 or later | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,512 | +$1,130 +45% | 20 |
| 722d |  vocifer | 2025 or later | BuyNo24¢ → 0¢ | $1,086 | −$1,086 −100% | 20 |
| 723d | willydh | 2025 or later | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,404 | −$419 −30% | — |
| 725d | ImJustKen2 fills | Q4 | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $5,261 | −$5,261 −100% | 26 |
| 725d | ImJustKen | 2025 or later | BuyNo21¢ → 0¢ | $1,383 | −$1,383 −100% | 22 |
| 729d | anon1565 | 2025 or later | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | +$275 +27% | 20 |
| 731d | lesse2 fills | Q4 | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $5,480 | −$5,480 −100% | 27 |
| 746d |  LBZcapital | Q3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,693 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 746d | Klein-Bottle-Capital-Management | Q3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,814 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 750d | password2 fills | 2025 or later | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,110 | +$1,659 +53% | 20 |
| 755d |  Cajetan | Q3 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,378 | +$22 +1.6% | 20 |
| 755d | dadadabababab | Q3 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | +$17 +1.6% | 20 |
| 759d | ImJustKen | 2025 or later | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,458 | −$1,266 −52% | — |
| 761d | hideo | Q3 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,103 | −$89 −2.9% | — |
| 764d | swipe-338 | Q3 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,019 | +$174 +3.5% | 20 |
| 764d | commeowder | Q3 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,678 | −$153 −5.7% | — |
| 766d | LoseSavings | Q3 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$60 +5.3% | 20 |
| 775d | khabib-706 | Q3 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,549 | +$354 +6.4% | 20 |
| 776d | commeowder | Q3 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | +$89 +7.5% | 20 |
| 778d | anon15652 fills | Q3 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,935 | −$634 −9.1% | — |
This is a market on the predicted announcement date of GPT-5.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 2025 or later means the market gives it about 100%.