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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15 or later | 100% | +1 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 1-2 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 3-5 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 6-9 | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 10-14 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No Shutdown | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 368d |  Prophet-Z | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $11,135 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 368d | sheisgorgeous | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $1,506 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 368d |  Simbaaaa | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $4,401 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 368d | RickRockRick | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $1,597 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 368d | Polly.A | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $1,684 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 368d |  prescient | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,960 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 368d | Dead-Skylightt9 fills | October 15 or later | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $70,883 | +$7,124 +10% | 4 |
| 368d | Dead-Skylightt | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $56,567 | +$57 +0.1% | 4 |
| 368d | top-g-official | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,800 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 368d | channingzhang | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 368d |  0xrunner | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 368d |  TeemuPukki | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,848 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 |
| 368d |  carySantano2 fills | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,964 | +$24 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d | Hashbrown | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,979 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 368d |  UwO | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,910 | +$90 +0.3% | 4 |
| 368d |  brodiaga2 fills | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,611 | +$49 +0.4% | 4 |
| 368d | pimmo | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,163 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d | tradose | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,986 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d | rpzz | October 15 or later | SellYes>99¢ | $1,494 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 368d | magol | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,519 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d | hopefulli | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,374 | +$11 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d | Henry.0 | October 15 or later | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,668 | −$16 −0.6% | — |
| 368d |  Parthenope | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 368d | hjklljnlnl | October 10-14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,307 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 368d | hjklljnlnl | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,310 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d |  Orwell844 | October 10-14 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,982 | −$18 −0.4% | — |
| 368d | aviato | October 15 or later | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,984 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 |
| 368d | Hspectero | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,935 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 368d |  arjennnnn | October 10-14 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 368d | TeemuPukki | October 15 or later | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,940 | −$60 −0.8% | — |
| 369d | Trump2028 | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,064 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 369d |  Opium4 | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,273 | +$13 +0.3% | 4 |
| 369d |  SerjShard106 | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 369d |  classified4 fills | October 15 or later | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,011 | +$160 +2.3% | 4 |
| 369d |  franeotb | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,689 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 369d |  Fontinz | October 10-14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,522 | +$13 +0.3% | 4 |
| 369d |  Bitcoin.pdf | October 15 or later | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$17 +0.6% | 4 |
| 369d |  Porymarket | October 15 or later | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,262 | +$13 +1.0% | 4 |
| 369d | itsluck | October 15 or later | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,918 | −$82 −1.7% | — |
| 369d | Ordon2 fills | October 15 or later | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,255 | +$45 +0.9% | 4 |
| 369d | fengdubiying | October 15 or later | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,493 | −$23 −1.5% | — |
| 369d | crayven | October 15 or later | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,615 | −$22 −1.4% | — |
| 369d |  Nouveau | October 10-14 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,554 | +$51 +1.1% | 4 |
| 369d |  SwissMiss | October 15 or later | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,629 | +$227 +2.4% | 4 |
| 369d | TopCat | October 10-14 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$137 +1.5% | 4 |
| 369d | CanadianGoose | October 10-14 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,948 | +$52 +1.8% | 4 |
| 369d | Suspicious-EnrollmentNew account | October 10-14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$30 +2.9% | 5 |
| 370d | Hashbrown2 fills | October 10-14 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,958 | +$142 +3.6% | 5 |
| 370d | GRi | October 10-14 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,713 | −$153 −4.1% | — |
| 370d | GRi | October 15 or later | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,594 | −$238 −4.3% | — |
| 370d | galencw | October 15 or later | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,673 | −$216 −5.9% | — |
| 370d | PlanTruster | October 15 or later | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,045 | −$100 −4.9% | — |
| 370d | PlanTruster | October 15 or later | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,160 | +$130 +3.1% | 5 |
| 370d | sansie | October 15 or later | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,112 | +$36 +3.2% | 5 |
| 370d |  Bertschwert | October 15 or later | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $12,282 | +$469 +3.8% | 5 |
| 370d | Edvinp | October 10-14 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,862 | −$232 −4.8% | — |
| 370d |  moomoomoo8 fills | October 15 or later | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $28,068 | +$7,994 +28% | 4 |
| 370d | sumemu | October 15 or later | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$45 +3.9% | 5 |
| 370d | lianx689 | October 10-14 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$40 +3.6% | 5 |
| 370d | collective-trading | October 15 or later | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,314 | −$69 −5.2% | — |
ciro261,043 shares
tetrose18,240 shares
tomatosauce10,601 shares
ChironCrossing10,600 sharesThis market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. If OPM does not announce a shutdown on October 1, 2025 by 10:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “No Shutdown.” Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 15 or later means the market gives it about 100%.