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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlines | 7% | — | −1 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| American Airlines | 3% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | $427 | in 76d |
| Allegiant | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $200 | in 76d |
| Alaska Airlines | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $115 | in 76d |
| JetBlue | 4% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | $84.7 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74d |  devin.lawson.773 fills | Allegiant | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $12,687 | −$100 −0.8% | — |
| 144d | devin.lawson.77 | Alaska Airlines | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $3,004 | −$33 −1.1% | — |
| 158d |  DEGENKHAN | American Airlines | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $2,904 | +$144 +4.9% | 25 |
| 158d | DEGENKHAN | Alaska Airlines | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,160 | +$19 +1.6% | 23 |
| 162d | devin.lawson.772 fills | Allegiant | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $10,916 | +$510 +4.7% | 25 |
| 162d | 0x9c1 | JetBlue | BuyNo85¢ → 96¢ | $2,992 | +$363 +12% | 30 |
| 163d | devin.lawson.772 fills | Alaska Airlines | BuyNo91¢ → 98¢ | $7,279 | +$525 +7.2% | 26 |
devin.lawson.77550 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 7¢ for Frontier Airlines means the market gives it about 7%.