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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | +2 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended | |
| xAI | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| OpenAI | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anthropic | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Meta | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alibaba | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| DeepSeek | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Company A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Company G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 564d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,422 | +$160 +2.2% | 4 | |
| 564d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,765 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 564d |  DancingonMarshmellos | SellYes>99¢ | $1,279 | −$4 −0.3% | — | |
| 564d | ChampaLiberation | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,192 | +$25 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 565d | OLOTH | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,498 | +$6 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 565d |  KimJonEn4 fills | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,731 | +$109 +1.6% | 4 | |
| 565d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,229 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 565d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,095 | +$24 +0.1% | 4 |
| 565d | Tremirorot | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,758 | +$19 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 565d | menger | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$19 −1.9% | — | |
| 565d | Aelivara | Meta | BuyNo>99¢ | $58,609 | +$117 +0.2% | 4 |
| 566d | joelntemuse | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | −$39 −2.6% | — | |
| 566d | joelntemuse | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$27 +1.8% | 4 | |
| 566d |  Rumpelstiltskin2 fills | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,773 | +$49 +1.8% | 4 | |
| 566d | funnybox | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,598 | +$30 +1.1% | 4 | |
| 567d |  praesagus5 fills | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $13,890 | +$1,676 +12% | 5 | |
| 568d | Therionis | OpenAI | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,102 | +$101 +0.4% | 4 |
| 568d | Vinivi | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $23,550 | +$673 +2.9% | 4 | |
| 568d | yululu | DeepSeek | SellNo>99¢ | $2,573 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 568d | yululu | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,578 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 568d | elkmonkey | xAI | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,811 | −$189 −1.9% | — |
| 568d | n0d | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,449 | −$104 −3.0% | — | |
| 569d | Monster24 | xAI | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,290 | +$42 +1.3% | 4 |
| 569d | shebafinkin | xAI | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | −$24 −2.0% | — |
| 569d | rrr63 | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $2,497 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 569d | rrr642 fills | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $3,001 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 569d | rrr602 fills | Meta | SellNo>99¢ | $3,705 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 569d | rr652 fills | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $3,004 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 569d | rabbit632 fills | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $3,805 | −$17 −0.4% | — |
| 569d | AZwater2 fills | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,834 | +$166 +4.3% | 4 | |
| 569d | ChampaLiberation | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,462 | +$31 +0.9% | 4 |
| 570d | awjsgdlkdmjslkg2 fills | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $13,133 | −$684 −5.2% | — | |
| 570d | Agilord2 fills | xAI | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,324 | −$181 −2.5% | — |
| 570d | aviato2 fills | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,482 | +$318 +4.9% | 4 | |
| 570d | Glev | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$49 +4.9% | 4 | |
| 570d |  ComeBackOrBust2 fills | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $12,347 | +$3,288 +27% | 5 | |
| 570d | n0d | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,367 | +$186 +5.5% | 4 | |
| 570d |  ForecastFox | xAI | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | −$54 −5.4% | — |
| 570d | menger | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,500 | +$257 +5.7% | 4 | |
| 570d | praesagus2 fills | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,333 | −$245 −7.3% | — | |
| 570d | f4b14n | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $4,484 | −$516 −11% | — | |
| 570d | Hashbrown2 fills | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,165 | +$343 +5.6% | 4 | |
| 570d | nonkenny90 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,894 | +$106 +5.6% | 4 | |
| 570d | enjoykaz | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,041 | −$168 −8.2% | — | |
| 570d | grokq | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$60 +5.4% | 4 | |
| 570d | tuna-mayo | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,463 | −$154 −11% | — | |
| 570d |  fffffz | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,691 | +$632 +11% | 5 | |
| 570d | Campsite | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$228 +12% | 5 | |
| 571d |  MiyamotoMusashi | xAI | SellYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,329 | +$1,329 +100% | — |
| 571d | rrr60 | Anthropic | SellNo>99¢ | $2,708 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 572d | d481516cf7db7a | xAI | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $2,689 | −$2,689 −100% | 4 |
| 572d | rrr63 | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$10 +0.7% | 4 |
| 572d | rrr63 | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 572d | OptionK | xAI | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $9,500 | −$9,500 −100% | 4 |
| 572d | rrr62 | DeepSeek | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,955 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 572d | International-Chemical | xAI | BuyYes93¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 4 |
| 572d | Elfandi | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,803 | −$2,803 −100% | 4 | |
| 572d | cigarettes3 fills | Anthropic | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,653 | +$31 +0.4% | 4 |
| 572d | cigarettes3 fills | DeepSeek | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,614 | +$71 +0.9% | 4 |
| 572d | cigarettes3 fills | Alibaba | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,672 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
DeepSeaPre22 sharesThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Google means the market gives it about 100%.