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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | $134 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24d | BS-SA-JJ-Team | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 92¢ | $1,129 | −$25 −2.2% | — |
| 45d | nope3050 | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ | $1,150 | $0 0.0% | 9 |
| 74d | abuzzin | December 31 | SellNo89¢ → 92¢ | $1,376 | −$44 −3.2% | — |
| 120d | Playful-Collateral | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 92¢ | $1,013 | −$71 −7.0% | — |
| 125d | Regular-Shipping | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 92¢ | $1,363 | −$166 −12% | — |
| 125d | Playful-Collateral2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,332 | +$233 +10.0% | 15 |
| 126d | Regular-Shipping | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $1,395 | +$134 +9.6% | 16 |
| 156d | 0x34e9…350c3 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $7,052 | −$765 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x34e9…350c6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $14,103 | +$1,529 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xcbac…c36b3 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $6,479 | −$703 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xcbac…c36b6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $12,958 | +$1,405 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xb14e…f7eb6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $14,128 | +$1,532 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xb14e…f7eb | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,355 | −$255 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x42a4…6dcc6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,053 | +$1,415 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xc50b…c33f | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,210 | −$240 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xc50b…c33f6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,262 | +$1,438 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x84f9…a63d6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,815 | +$1,498 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x84f9…a63d | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,302 | −$250 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x2782…ad156 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $12,764 | +$1,384 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x2782…ad15 | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,127 | −$231 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x839c…f8a9 | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,269 | −$246 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x839c…f8a96 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,615 | +$1,476 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xfc41…96586 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,954 | +$1,513 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xfc41…96582 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $4,651 | −$504 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x276a…aaac6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,277 | +$1,440 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x6f0b…8ff96 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,770 | +$1,493 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x1c9f…c70f | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,209 | −$239 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x1c9f…c70f6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,252 | +$1,437 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xf06f…f93f2 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $4,458 | −$483 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xf06f…f93f6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,539 | +$1,497 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x2767…ec0d6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,551 | +$1,469 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x2767…ec0d | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $2,258 | −$245 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x1d76…19974 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $9,309 | −$1,009 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x1d76…19976 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $13,964 | +$1,514 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xaf6f…80ca4 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $9,445 | −$1,024 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xaf6f…80ca6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $14,168 | +$1,536 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x0ab8…92195 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $10,636 | +$1,153 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x0ab8…92192 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $4,255 | −$461 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x05bc…71862 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $5,297 | −$574 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x05bc…71864 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $10,594 | +$1,149 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x1dd7…0cd36 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $12,868 | +$1,395 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x1dd7…0cd34 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $8,579 | −$930 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xba06…9c9b5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $12,952 | +$1,404 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xba06…9c9b3 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $7,771 | −$843 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0xebba…a3ef5 fills | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $11,242 | −$1,100 −9.8% | — |
| 156d | 0xebba…a3ef6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $13,522 | +$1,288 +9.5% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x2ad6…5d7a | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,345 | −$223 −9.5% | — |
| 156d | 0x2ad6…5d7a | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,345 | +$223 +9.5% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x119d…185e7 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 92¢ | $12,666 | +$1,373 +11% | 15 |
| 156d | 0x119d…185e6 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 92¢ | $10,856 | −$1,177 −11% | — |
| 156d | 0x618e…6f626 fills | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $15,775 | −$1,605 −10% | — |
| 156d | 0x618e…6f626 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $15,883 | +$1,582 +10.0% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xee21…93036 fills | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $10,730 | −$1,022 −9.5% | — |
| 156d | 0xee21…93036 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $10,730 | +$1,022 +9.5% | 15 |
| 156d | 0xcdb2…e11a | December 31 | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,929 | −$279 −9.5% | — |
| 156d | 0xcdb2…e11a | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,929 | +$279 +9.5% | 15 |
| 158d | 0x2639…8f09 | December 31 | SellNo85¢ → 92¢ | $3,825 | −$315 −8.2% | — |
| 158d | 0x2639…8f09 | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $3,825 | +$315 +8.2% | 14 |
| 158d | 0xda5b…2cc74 fills | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $13,612 | +$1,035 +7.6% | 14 |
| 158d | 0x15fa…248e4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 92¢ | $11,008 | +$768 +7.0% | 13 |
tetrose2,740 shares
GrokEnjoyer1,111 shares
Quarrelsome-Branch1,048 shares
PROPHET.NOTES819 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 8¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 8%.