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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,682 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 169d |  MajoriT14 fills | April 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $43,030 | +$2,314 +5.4% | 4 |
| 172d | Amusing-Synod | April 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,609 | −$48 −1.3% | — |
| 172d | End123 | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$12 +0.7% | 4 |
| 173d | bearbees2 | April 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | −$20 −1.2% | — |
| 173d | Laurenman4 fills | April 30 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,541 | +$625 +9.5% | 4 |
| 176d | lorry3122 | April 30 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,162 | +$114 +5.3% | 4 |
| 183d | WongHolden | April 30 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | −$31 −2.0% | — |
| 185d | spacegliderr | April 30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,857 | +$119 +4.2% | 4 |
| 188d | randomlypunting | April 30 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,706 | −$438 −7.7% | — |
| 190d | KrackenSruster | April 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,213 | −$337 −3.3% | — |
| 192d | FDVnothanks | April 30 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | −$107 −8.8% | — |
| 192d | randomlypunting | April 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | +$123 +8.8% | 4 |
| 193d | OnChainCassandra | April 30 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,287 | +$246 +11% | 4 |
| 196d | none11111 | April 30 | BuyYes23¢ → 0¢ | $1,128 | −$1,128 −100% | 5 |
| 199d |  duderr | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,574 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 199d | ears | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,595 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 206d | latinalover77 | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$28 +2.7% | 4 |
| 211d |  Naichli | March 31 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,987 | −$58 −2.9% | — |
| 218d | Dreary-Intensity | March 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$50 +5.0% | 4 |
| 224d | KrackenSruster | March 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$128 +10% | 4 |
| 226d | lorry3122 | March 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$128 +12% | 4 |
| 229d | 881112 | March 31 | BuyYes31¢ → 0¢ | $4,767 | −$4,767 −100% | 10 |
| 230d | Fuyez | March 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | +$217 +17% | 4 |
| 230d | LG33 | February 28 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,177 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 230d |  OraculumNobius | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,337 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 230d |  MisTKy | February 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,287 | +$93 +4.1% | 4 |
| 230d | Thin-Print | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,935 | +$23 +1.2% | 4 |
| 230d | Limp-Jicama | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$35 +2.8% | 4 |
| 231d |  Parz1vaI | February 28 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$74 −7.1% | — |
| 231d | KrackenSruster | February 28 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,430 | +$166 +12% | 4 |
| 231d | dravey | February 28 | BuyYes28¢ → 0¢ | $5,822 | −$5,822 −100% | 11 |
| 231d |  Oompa-Loompa | February 28 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,339 | +$150 +11% | 4 |
| 231d | Parz1vaI3 fills | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,954 | +$80 +1.6% | 4 |
| 232d | gamblito | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$18 +0.9% | 4 |
| 232d |  BamseOgKylling | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,775 | +$25 +0.9% | 4 |
| 232d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,819 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 234d | Number0 | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,968 | +$22 +1.1% | 4 |
0x87124,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for April 30 means the market gives it about 0%.