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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +2 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 444d | cqs14 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $35,536 | +$4,809 +14% | 20 |
| 444d | BobbyB2 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,392 | +$41 +0.9% | 20 |
| 449d | thebetter12342 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,205 | +$61 +2.8% | 20 |
| 467d | cqs | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,397 | −$90 −3.7% | — |
| 471d |  scrooge3 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,263 | −$402 −7.6% | — |
| 474d | DragonRider-819 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,939 | −$102 −5.3% | — |
| 474d | Bx2448368V | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$158 +9.9% | 20 |
| 478d | kageyuki | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | −$204 −14% | — |
| 479d | cryptid | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo14¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 27 |
| 489d |  YoungGriff | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,409 | −$298 −12% | — |
| 494d |  jdidop3 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$209 +20% | 20 |
| 504d | CompulsiveGambler2 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $4,993 | +$1,190 +24% | 20 |
| 505d |  studmuffin6969 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$272 +19% | 20 |
| 506d | ICountElectricSheep | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,116 | −$684 −61% | — |
| 506d | YoungGriff | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | +$1,400 +54% | 20 |
| 506d | LeftieFTW | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$779 −72% | — |
| 506d | studmuffin69694 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $5,178 | −$2,007 −39% | — |
| 506d |  HNIC | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo39¢ → 0¢ | $4,737 | −$4,737 −100% | 23 |
| 511d | CompulsiveGambler2 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $7,590 | −$1,953 −26% | — |
| 522d | Newshound | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,773 | −$1,127 −30% | — |
| 523d | thebetter1234 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,411 | −$680 −28% | — |
| 529d | LeftieFTW | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,578 | +$422 +27% | 20 |
| 530d | mooseytunes0 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo23¢ → 0¢ | $2,542 | −$2,542 −100% | 25 |
| 541d | InsiderrrZ | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo18¢ → 0¢ | $2,048 | +$2,048 +100% | — |
| 542d |  Eridpnc | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo17¢ → 0¢ | $1,295 | +$1,295 +100% | — |
| 546d | SomeOne45 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | −$297 −25% | — |
| 546d | Crocoslot1 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | −$495 −25% | — |
| 552d |  dududududu | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | −$440 −28% | — |
| 552d | scrooge | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,550 | +$1,210 +27% | 20 |
| 552d | maadscientist | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$260 +26% | 20 |
| 553d | love520520 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$388 −36% | — |
| 553d | love520520 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | +$283 +24% | 20 |
| 555d |  Wickier | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,148 | −$1,148 −100% | 20 |
| 558d | 0x17586648425 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | −$311 −30% | — |
| 561d | ouiouibaguette01 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$204 +16% | 20 |
| 562d | KingaOtta | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | −$247 −18% | — |
| 562d | Wickier | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,603 | +$692 +27% | 20 |
| 562d | ICountElectricSheep | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$314 +27% | 20 |
| 577d |  NihilisticMeerkat4 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $4,948 | +$8,536 +173% | 24 |
| 579d | Caelvian | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $32,196 | −$44,461 −138% | — |
| 579d | Xenara | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $44,461 | −$44,461 −100% | 20 |
| 584d | Veythoris | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $67,589 | +$67,589 +100% | — |
| 584d | Aesvion | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $45,061 | +$67,592 +150% | 27 |
| 589d |  Eatplantsnotanimals2 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $3,963 | −$9,082 −229% | — |
| 591d | Bink_75 fills | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo62¢ → 0¢ | $19,083 | −$19,083 −100% | 20 |
| 591d | Lalaf | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | −$1,753 −129% | — |
| 594d | BowlOfPunch | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,022 | −$1,022 −100% | 20 |
| 599d |  just.some.guy | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo61¢ → 0¢ | $2,517 | +$2,517 +100% | — |
| 606d | mrBet | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes29¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$2,495 −249% | — |
| 611d | JoshuaHendrickson | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,167 | −$1,167 −100% | 20 |
| 617d | TheFedIsGood | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,254 | +$1,254 +100% | — |
| 618d | Kevindoto | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $18,664 | −$18,664 −100% | 20 |
| 620d | just.some.guy | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,147 | −$1,147 −100% | 20 |
| 620d |  New.Jeans | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes35¢ → 100¢ | $1,511 | −$2,807 −186% | — |
| 620d | ozymandiazz | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 621d |  mombil | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,208 | −$569 −47% | — |
| 621d | 0x17586648425 | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$600 +53% | 20 |
| 621d | Lalaf | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,113 +56% | 20 |
| 622d |  goatconnoisseur | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,719 | −$1,130 −66% | — |
| 622d | Wickier | Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | SellNo56¢ → 0¢ | $2,533 | +$2,533 +100% | — |
ciro23,757 shares
BabyYoda123,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for either Q1 or Q2 of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2, currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2025. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2 2025 is released by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.