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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12 | 100% | +25 pts | +11 pts | 98¢ · >99¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| July 10 | 0% | −35 pts | −83 pts | 7¢ · 11¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| July 11 | 100% | +16 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 7 | 0% | −10 pts | −12 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 18 | 100% | +8 pts | +16 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 1 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 16 | 0% | −14 pts | −88 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 100% | +11 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 6 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 4 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 15 | 100% | +4 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 5 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 2 | 100% | +7 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 30 | 0% | −34 pts | −88 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 23 | 100% | +13 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 19 | 100% | +17 pts | +16 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| July 20 | 0% | −85 pts | −89 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 9 | 0% | −11 pts | −92 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| July 24 | 100% | +10 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 100% | +10 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 21 | 100% | +13 pts | +7 pts | 90¢ · 100¢ (10¢) | — | ended |
| July 8 | 100% | +4 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 13 | 100% | +16 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 14 | 100% | +12 pts | +9 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 17 | 100% | +10 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 28 | 100% | +17 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 27 | 100% | +11 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 22 | 100% | +16 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 25 | 0% | −90 pts | −90 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 26 | 100% | +10 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 29 | 100% | +8 pts | +10 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77d |  meagainsttheworld | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$15 +0.8% | 4 |
| 78d |  BossuSmekeru | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,716 | +$34 +2.0% | 5 |
| 79d | anon.1980.123 | July 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $1,027 | −$1,027 −100% | 5 |
| 81d | Extra-Small-Weapon | July 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,452 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 82d |  Raskell | July 7 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$77 +5.9% | 4 |
| 83d | 247525 | July 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,116 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 85d | oidocrop | July 23 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,853 | +$47 +2.5% | 4 |
| 87d | Raskell | July 21 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,757 | +$243 +14% | 4 |
| 88d |  C6H6 | July 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,973 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 90d | Trustinghorse2 fills | July 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,716 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 93d |  CosmicCedar | July 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,432 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 96d | NeoOracle | July 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 96d |  Car | July 12 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,318 | +$27 +1.2% | 4 |
| 97d |  ZhangMuZhisDaddy | July 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,631 | +$62 +1.3% | 4 |
| 97d | BossuSmekeru | July 10 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$27 +2.2% | 4 |
| 97d |  Rex416 | July 11 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$40 +0.4% | 4 |
| 97d | nickthechopper | July 11 | BuyYes100¢ | $2,866 | +$14 +0.5% | 4 |
| 98d | patouossa | July 9 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | −$130 −8.8% | — |
| 102d | NeoOracle2 fills | July 6 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,278 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 102d | looppau | July 6 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,099 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 102d | anon.1980.123 | July 8 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | +$56 +3.5% | 4 |
| 102d | anon.1980.123 | July 5 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | −$30 −1.9% | — |
| 102d | anon.1980.123 | July 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | −$1,277 −100% | 4 |
| 103d | anon.1980.123 | July 6 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,670 | +$52 +3.1% | 4 |
| 103d | BossuSmekeru | July 5 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,145 | +$59 +5.1% | 4 |
| 104d | Trustinghorse | July 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 105d | Raskell | July 3 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,672 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 105d | HornyBibi2 fills | July 1 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,010 | +$31 +1.0% | 4 |
| 105d |  yen4u2 fills | July 1 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,999 | +$52 +1.7% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 12 means the market gives it about 100%.