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Polymarket wallet 0xa4fed989597965a41a5cc4583e31b5b8e8224c9d · on Polymarket since Feb 26, 2026 · also shown as Apprehensive-Butcher
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 100 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 19 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 186 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$85 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 204d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BuyUp13¢ | $3 |
| 204d | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SellYes1¢ | $0 |
| 204d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SellYes17¢ | $2 |
| 204d | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | BuyUp45¢ | $85 |
| 218d | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SellYes>99¢ | $16 |
| 218d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BuyYes37¢ | $5 |
| 229d | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BuyYes33¢ | $5 |
| 229d | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BuyYes21¢ | $9 |
| 232d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BuyDown4¢ | $1 |
| 232d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BuyDown4¢ | $1 |
| 232d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BuyDown4¢ | $0 |
| 232d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BuyDown4¢ | $2 |
| 232d | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BuyDown4¢ | $0 |
| 233d | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BuyYes10¢ | $5 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 4 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.