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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | 0 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +35 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 74d |
| March 3 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31? | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| February 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| March 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 14 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191d | TwoTierKeir | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,488 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 191d |  debased4 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $252,866 | −$752 −0.3% | — |
| 191d |  PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $38,952 | −$39 −0.1% | — |
| 191d |  WordleAddict | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $870,182 | −$871 −0.1% | — |
| 191d |  Protruder3 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $249,750 | −$250 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | carlaAB | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | puparia | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,662 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | ForesightOracle3 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,562,742 | +$2,001 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  Slowroasted | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,979 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  duderr2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $57,942 | +$58 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,199 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  iamkrisas3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $66,254 | +$86 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  CookieAnn2 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,794 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | xytest | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $72,826 | +$73 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | minji | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $76,493 | +$77 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  0xheavy8882 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $166,653 | +$267 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  aldynspeedruns | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,424 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  mango-lassi | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,443 | +$57 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  FrancisSP8 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,091 | +$44 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | user5420 | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,883 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  tetrase8 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $77,835 | −$156 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  classified2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,409 | +$35 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  GollumGekko2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,487 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  abhionpoly | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,063 | +$20 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  Jellow22 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,453 | −$49 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  JustCrazy | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  Valen95 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $119,749 | −$251 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | HMSMAD123 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $27,200 | +$55 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  wisechinaman | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,410 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  Pain- | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | whig2 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,984 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  Martina11 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,198 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate2 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $698,600 | −$1,400 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  Mr-Krabs | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,988 | −$12 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | D0zer | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,096 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | Magnificent-MaracasNew account | April 30 | BuyNo<1¢ | $2,045 | −$2,045 −100% | 21 |
| 191d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd2 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $144,710 | −$290 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  Rucki66 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | Feisty-Stencil | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $39,287 | −$118 −0.3% | — |
| 191d |  KARMASUR | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,920 | +$80 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | KARMASUR | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,231 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 191d | safebetter112 | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $19,940 | −$60 −0.3% | — |
| 191d |  MasonsConqueredRome | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,606 | +$49 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  Kalags | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,586 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 191d |  CoffeeDespiser2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,784 | +$16 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  Nik- | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,970 | −$30 −0.3% | — |
| 191d |  CoffeeLover2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,485 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | I-love-pizzas | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,129 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | GollumGekko | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,976 | −$24 −0.3% | — |
| 191d | KARMASUR3 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,099 | +$71 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | Barda | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,703 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | steeplejack2 fills | April 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $180,393 | +$261 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d |  NIRVANA87 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,211 | +$57 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d |  ULYSSES18 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,637 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | 99problems1232 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $212,111 | −$525 −0.2% | — |
| 191d |  Ahpo3 fills | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,653 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | steeplejack2 fills | April 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $421,009 | −$3,318 −0.8% | — |
| 191d |  Car | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $42,413 | −$85 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | SecondWindCapital | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $411,830 | −$825 −0.2% | — |
| 191d | SecondWindCapital | April 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $619,748 | −$1,242 −0.2% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 30 means the market gives it about 100%.