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Polymarket wallet 0xd5ea0c5365f1631d76f79b1ef0cd07d48fdebddf · on Polymarket since Jan 14, 2026 · also shown as Friendly-Poncho
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 59 | 26¢ → 100¢ | $59 | +$44 +285% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 75 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $4 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 2¢ | $1 | −$9 −86% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 18 | 20¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$3 −86% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the US strike Cuba next?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the US strike Venezuela next?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the US strike another country first?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 554 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 274d | Will the US strike Cuba next? | BuyYes<1¢ | $1 |
| 274d | Will the US strike Venezuela next? | BuyYes<1¢ | $1 |
| 274d | Will the US strike another country first? | BuyYes<1¢ | $2 |
| 274d | Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | BuyYes11¢ | $2 |
| 274d | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes26¢ | $5 |
| 275d | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BuyYes7¢ | $5 |
| 275d | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BuyYes20¢ | $4 |
| 275d | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes49¢ | $10 |
| 275d | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes26¢ | $10 |
| 275d | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BuyYes18¢ | $10 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 1 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.