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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 years | 100% | +24 pts | +30 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| No Prison Time | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 5-10 years | 0% | −20 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 10-20 years | 0% | −5 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 20-30 years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 30-40 years | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| 40-50 years | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| >50 years | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 378d | 100x2 fills | <5 years | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,996 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 378d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | 10-20 years | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,396 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 378d | QMG-CORE | 20-30 years | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 378d | Watch-Gel-Pods | <5 years | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,100 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 378d |  ImJustKen | 30-40 years | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,953 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 378d | klnr11 | <5 years | BuyYes100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 378d | VorpalQuark | <5 years | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,882 | +$200 +5.2% | 20 |
| 378d | ImJustKen | 5-10 years | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,503 | +$429 +7.8% | 20 |
| 378d | ScottyNooo | <5 years | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,132 | +$280 +8.9% | 20 |
| 378d | ScottyNooo | 10-20 years | BuyYes59¢ → 0¢ | $2,565 | −$2,565 −100% | 20 |
| 382d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $19,690 | +$1,673 +8.5% | 20 |
| 392d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | 10-20 years | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,937 | +$63 +2.1% | 20 |
| 441d |  MegaTheGabriell | No Prison Time | BuyYes13¢ → 0¢ | $1,175 | −$1,175 −100% | 21 |
| 460d | Skirk1123 | <5 years | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | −$771 −62% | — |
| 464d | BlackPeopleDontRecycle | No Prison Time | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,538 | +$368 +8.1% | 20 |
| 465d | yuuuuur | No Prison Time | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$83 −7.7% | — |
| 468d | OPTIONSKING | <5 years | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,737 | −$763 −44% | — |
| 470d |  0x12345 | <5 years | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | −$800 −67% | — |
| 471d |  GerryHannon | No Prison Time | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$72 +6.1% | 20 |
| 471d | GooseEgg | No Prison Time | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,942 | −$184 −6.3% | — |
| 471d |  MaxVerstap | <5 years | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$660 +33% | 20 |
| 471d | seajrsmith37 | <5 years | SellYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$542 −51% | — |
| 471d |  Funfzig | 5-10 years | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$261 +23% | 20 |
| 472d | Watch-Gel-Pods | No Prison Time | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$51 +2.6% | 20 |
| 472d |  SaudiMinisterOfHomeEntertainment | 20-30 years | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | +$145 +13% | 20 |
| 472d | yamaha9955 | 40-50 years | SellYes10¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | +$1,500 +100% | — |
| 472d | yamaha9955 | 40-50 years | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $4,500 | −$4,500 −100% | 26 |
Dr.Doubloon16 sharesMegaTheGabriell370 shares
Nevevrjeoke196 sharesThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Sean "Diddy" Combs as part of his ongoing federal trial (United States of America v. Sean Combs, Case No. 1:24-cr-00542) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Combs is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government or court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <5 years means the market gives it about 100%.