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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +93 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −69 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80d |  BigMackyG | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,131 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | windyww | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | Mommy007 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,005 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 80d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,241 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,432 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,615 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,613 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | Rich-Lyre | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,100 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 80d | treh | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,602 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | EMbrace | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,034 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | karen2p | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,317 | +$86 +3.7% | 21 |
| 80d | sazzaa | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,585 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | pupupuup | 65-89 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,799 | +$368 +20% | 26 |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,787 | +$213 +5.6% | 22 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,570 | +$45 +2.9% | 21 |
| 80d | carboyant | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,051 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 80d | pingfan6663 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $4,503 | −$4,503 −100% | 20 |
| 80d | nbjui1 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $3,343 | −$3,343 −100% | 21 |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $3,708 | −$3,708 −100% | 21 |
| 80d | dafei888 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,338 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | nbjui1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,410 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | 0x496a…cd26 | 65-89 | SellNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,589 | +$1,589 +100% | — |
| 80d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 0¢ | $3,785 | −$3,785 −100% | 23 |
| 80d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 21 |
| 80d | abinfafafa | <40 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$236 +15% | 23 |
| 80d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,510 | +$64 +4.2% | 21 |
| 80d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$200 +4.2% | 21 |
| 80d | startrader3 fills | <40 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $3,875 | +$1,586 +41% | 28 |
| 80d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,555 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | Adorable-Initial | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$41 +0.4% | 20 |
| 80d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,150 | −$1,150 −100% | 21 |
| 80d | nbjui12 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,399 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 80d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,192 | +$33 +1.0% | 20 |
| 81d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,496 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 81d |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,048 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 81d | Parallel-Trader | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 81d | cornprovide | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$21 +1.5% | 20 |
LornaWhite40 shares
Lavincey890 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 27 12:00 PM ET to July 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.