Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +27 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,213 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | Hurtful-SnowNew account | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,927 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,245 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,188 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 103d |  Green.Gold | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,296 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 103d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,098 | +$65 +3.1% | 21 |
| 103d |  jesterthegoose | <40 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,764 | +$174 +9.9% | 23 |
| 103d |  Mei-ji | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,330 | +$122 +5.2% | 22 |
| 103d |  Espagan | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,320 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | <40 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,488 | +$850 +15% | 22 |
| 103d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 103d | onekey02 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,455 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 103d |  Kinganibus | <40 | BuyYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$1,131 +65% | 30 |
| 103d | buputong | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,990 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 103d | suifeng668 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,333 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 103d | dafei888 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 103d |  Spotless-Godfather | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,812 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 103d | pingfan666 | 65-89 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,654 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 103d | luca882 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,493 | +$26 +1.1% | 20 |
| 103d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 103d | x847291533 fills | <40 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $6,298 | +$6,186 +98% | 25 |
| 103d | x84729153 | <40 | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | −$768 −62% | — |
| 103d |  stauffen | 40-64 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$233 +19% | 24 |
| 103d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,413 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 103d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,416 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 103d | carboyant2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,415 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 103d | Adorable-Initial | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,500 | +$66 +0.7% | 20 |
| 103d | lankeleads | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,812 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 104d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,126 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 104d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,879 | +$113 +3.9% | 21 |
| 104d | Hurtful-SnowNew account | <40 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,243 | +$774 +62% | 37 |
| 104d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,221 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 104d |  Dearblue | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,790 | +$75 +4.2% | 21 |
| 104d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,329 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 104d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,834 | +$166 +9.1% | 21 |
| 104d | Espagan | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$129 +11% | 22 |
| 105d |  BigMackyG | <40 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,205 | −$1,205 −100% | 24 |
| 106d | BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo48¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | +$1,742 +110% | 25 |
dz1ft2,248 shares
Danielx8661,506 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.