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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +76 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −23 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −54 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −3 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | hulitest2025 | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,724 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | RootWoot | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash2 fills | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,570 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | thoodr | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,455 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | thoodr | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,184 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | RickRockRick | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,234 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 14d |  Kurumi.chan | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,141 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,218 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 14d | Kurumi.chan | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,141 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | beatyesterday3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,422 | +$40 +0.9% | 20 |
| 14d |  Bot42 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,458 | +$27 +0.8% | 20 |
| 14d | 0B06 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,266 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 14d |  y111m11 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,561 | +$24 +1.5% | 21 |
| 14d |  leleko2k | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$16 +1.5% | 21 |
| 15d | beatyesterday | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | +$26 +2.1% | 21 |
| 15d |  upont | 220-239 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,839 | +$94 +3.3% | 21 |
| 15d | d008 | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$52 +2.6% | 21 |
| 15d | UKnowNothingJonSnow | 220-239 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,776 | +$74 +4.2% | 21 |
| 15d | dddtrips | 220-239 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,161 | −$162 −5.1% | — |
| 15d | UKnowNothingJonSnow3 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,389 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | carboyant | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,980 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 15d |  LinaBell🦊2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,296 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 15d | Kurumi.chan | 200-219 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | −$39 −3.1% | — |
| 15d | Partial-Robin-Patience | 200-219 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,029 | −$90 −8.7% | — |
| 15d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 200-219 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | −$102 −7.5% | — |
| 15d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 200-219 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$225 +18% | 24 |
| 15d | UKnowNothingJonSnow2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $24,441 | +$194 +0.8% | 20 |
| 15d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$44 +1.5% | 20 |
| 15d | DrunkenKraken | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,339 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
| 15d | thoodr | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | CakeBake2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,185 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 15d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | niceShare | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,396 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | LazyWanker | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,443 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  funnybon2 fills | 200-219 | SellYes53¢ → 0¢ | $2,197 | +$2,197 +100% | — |
| 15d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,135 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 15d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,009 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,192 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | upont4 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,105 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | bipbipbop | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,035 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | upont | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,694 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | upont | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,495 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 16d | 0xcaf2…9926 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,999 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 16d | RootWoot | 220-239 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 21 |
| 16d | RootWoot | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 16d | upont3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,620 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d | icariam06 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 16d | ElonSimp | 160-179 | SellNo100¢ | $1,333 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 16d | ElonSimp | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 16d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,468 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | Laoxiong | 180-199 | SellNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$747 −69% | — |
| 16d |  Mei-ji | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d | rw-mehtape2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,192 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d |  Boss7 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d |  stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $2,142 | +$1,239 +58% | 25 |
Aureliuss313 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 25 12:00 PM ET to October 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.