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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 100% | +3 pts | +8 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (0¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25 bps decrease | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25+ bps increase | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 527d |  betwick | 25 bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | Drowerz | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | nonkenny90 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  elmcap2 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  praesagus5 fills | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $28,971 | −$29 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  Car | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $24,440 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  1800stopgambling | 50+ bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $1,298 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  lockfolio | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | affs207913 fills | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $15,425 | −$75 −0.5% | — |
| 527d | pako6 fills | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $48,951 | −$49 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  MaverickMoves | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,181 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | Prime-Tourist | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $22,582 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | JSoon | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | wokerjoesleeper | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $14,985 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  MettaWorldPeace00 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,179 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  MR.K-473 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,124 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | Adam001 | 25 bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 527d | Andy9527 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $14,156 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  Gooddfella | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,326 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  meowinglion | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,850 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 527d |  JPow823747392 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $7,764 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 528d |  Bloodwyrm | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $26,657 | −$27 −0.1% | — |
| 528d | WWizard | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,018 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 528d | SergioVenezia | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $2,283 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 528d | polymoon-830 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $15,357 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 528d |  HNIC9 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $203,525 | +$1,674 +0.8% | 10 |
| 528d |  Donkov | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d |  Dropper | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $59,925 | +$75 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | Car2 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,382 | +$62 +0.3% | 10 |
| 528d |  ScarletRot | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $32,835 | +$198 +0.6% | 10 |
| 528d | b1d00256-1e29-498c-8984-ac55cb860cdd | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,770 | +$12 +0.3% | 10 |
| 528d | 0x4e25…d7a72 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,837 | +$163 +0.9% | 10 |
| 528d |  debased4 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $66,029 | +$837 +1.3% | 10 |
| 528d | 11122 | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,880 | +$120 +1.2% | 10 |
| 528d | cigarettes6 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $21,403 | +$307 +1.4% | 10 |
| 528d | SeonKyeong-rae | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,135 | +$38 +1.2% | 10 |
| 528d | Liquidifier2 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $39,520 | +$480 +1.2% | 10 |
| 528d | praesagus3 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $31,225 | +$596 +1.9% | 10 |
| 528d | MAGAMAN4 | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $36,890 | +$479 +1.3% | 10 |
| 528d | interstellaar2 fills | 25 bps decrease | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,549 | −$66 −1.8% | — |
| 528d | Naropoly3 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,540 | +$210 +1.8% | 11 |
| 528d | LBOJ | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$88 +1.8% | 10 |
| 528d | tantine2 fills | 25 bps decrease | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,437 | −$63 −1.8% | — |
| 528d | Gooddfella | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | +$24 +1.8% | 10 |
| 528d | interstellaar2 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,007 | +$76 +1.9% | 10 |
| 528d | SergioVenezia | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,237 | +$48 +2.2% | 10 |
| 528d | 0x253d…33076 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $76,485 | +$1,445 +1.9% | 11 |
| 528d | Trump20284 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $108,322 | +$108 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | JPow823747392 | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,384 | +$127 +2.4% | 10 |
| 528d | AreWeNotEntertained | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $265,734 | +$266 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | Liquidifier8 fills | No change | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $108,337 | −$2,530 −2.3% | — |
| 528d | duduking3 fills | No change | BuyNo2¢ → 0¢ | $4,042 | −$4,042 −100% | 29 |
| 528d |  Anjun | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,852 | +$168 +2.5% | 10 |
| 528d | FedFan | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,880 | +$120 +2.5% | 10 |
| 528d |  XAE12Archangel3 fills | No change | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,041 | −$191 −2.4% | — |
| 528d | debased | 25+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,558 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | cigarettes97 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $677,791 | +$701 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | CCmiro | 25 bps decrease | BuyYes2¢ → 0¢ | $1,084 | −$1,084 −100% | 11 |
| 528d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,976 | +$24 +0.1% | 10 |
| 528d | 0x552702e9e7969eab6518426a94ab2813d4f36c862 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $23,962 | +$525 +2.2% | 11 |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's May 2025 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for May 6 - 7, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No change means the market gives it about 100%.