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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70%+ | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40%+ | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d |  Cloverince | 40%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | ballboy95 | 40%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,596 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | 8396239287 | 50%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,498 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | 83962392872 fills | 60%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,755 | +$202 +5.4% | 4 |
| 258d |  zb85 fills | 60%+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $8,401 | +$971 +12% | 4 |
| 258d |  BeneGesseritVoice | 70%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $5,270 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 259d | RolandChang2 fills | 40%+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,002 | +$29 +1.0% | 4 |
| 259d | BeneGesseritVoice | 40%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,643 | +$34 +2.1% | 4 |
| 259d |  The-Joker | 60%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 259d | Elephantnose | 70%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | LisanAl-Gaib. | 40%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 260d | widheji | 50%+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,652 | −$27 −1.6% | — |
| 260d | nonkenny90 | 50%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,786 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | aikko | 60%+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$8 +0.7% | 4 |
| 261d | Linslav2 fills | 40%+ | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $4,373 | −$808 −18% | — |
| 261d | Djibooty | 60%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,849 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 261d | zb8 | 70%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,214 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 261d | mistertuna | 50%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | −$29 −1.5% | — |
| 262d |  doubleone22 fills | 70%+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,402 | −$54 −2.2% | — |
| 262d | RolandChang | 60%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,212 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 262d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | 60%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,661 | +$84 +2.3% | 4 |
| 262d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b047 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $28,114 | +$535 +1.9% | 4 |
| 262d | 83962392872 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,682 | +$107 +4.0% | 4 |
| 262d | facethepro | 40%+ | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,032 | −$153 −7.5% | — |
| 262d | Kind-Substitution3 fills | 50%+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,340 | +$181 +3.4% | 5 |
| 262d |  GUHHH | 50%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,585 | +$37 +2.3% | 4 |
| 263d | RolandChang | 70%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,572 | −$26 −1.0% | — |
| 263d | wubddh | 70%+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,471 | +$56 +1.0% | 4 |
| 263d |  degenGambler88882 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,183 | +$200 +4.8% | 4 |
| 263d |  ScottyNooo | 70%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 263d |  wish-2 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,299 | +$201 +6.1% | 4 |
| 263d | The-Joker | 60%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$22 +1.7% | 4 |
| 263d |  OVOXOSM | 70%+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$19 −1.8% | — |
| 264d | aikko | 70%+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | +$20 +1.4% | 4 |
| 264d | Kinder-B | 60%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | −$20 −1.4% | — |
| 264d | facethepro | 50%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,175 | +$51 +2.4% | 4 |
| 264d | RolandChang | 60%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,139 | +$75 +1.8% | 4 |
| 264d |  Parz1vaI3 fills | 70%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,559 | −$124 −2.7% | — |
| 265d | degenGambler8888 | 50%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,682 | +$64 +2.4% | 4 |
| 265d |  AlastorOrion3 fills | 70%+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,317 | −$57 −1.7% | — |
| 265d | BeneGesseritVoice | 70%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$29 +1.7% | 4 |
| 267d | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b042 fills | 50%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $13,425 | +$707 +5.3% | 4 |
| 267d | Huludubu2 fills | 70%+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,894 | −$71 −2.5% | — |
| 267d | Parz1vaI | 60%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,937 | −$54 −2.8% | — |
| 267d | ricardopb | 50%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$46 +4.2% | 4 |
| 267d | wish- | 50%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 4 |
| 267d | wish-3 fills | 60%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,345 | +$215 +5.0% | 4 |
| 268d | JuicedBunched | 60%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | −$33 −3.0% | — |
| 268d | The-Joker | 50%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | +$101 +5.0% | 4 |
| 268d | Parz1vaI2 fills | 60%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,795 | +$200 +4.2% | 4 |
| 268d | Kinder-B | 60%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$93 +4.6% | 4 |
| 268d | The-Joker | 40%+ | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$467 +44% | 4 |
| 268d |  theta-thunberg | 70%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$31 −3.0% | — |
| 269d | JohnAdams54321 | 60%+ | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | −$51 −4.6% | — |
| 270d | Parz1vaI3 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,977 | +$155 +3.9% | 4 |
| 271d | RolandChang2 fills | 70%+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,138 | +$70 +3.3% | 4 |
| 271d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 70%+ | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,946 | −$54 −2.8% | — |
| 271d | Linslav2 fills | 40%+ | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $3,427 | +$2,228 +65% | 4 |
| 271d |  fffffz2 fills | 40%+ | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $3,664 | −$3,664 −100% | 6 |
| 271d | Thumos | 50%+ | BuyYes29¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 8 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 70%+ means the market gives it about 0%.