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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24 | 100% | — | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 22 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 25 | 0% | −97 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 23 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| May 31 | 0% | −84 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| May 21 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 27 | 0% | −92 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| May 26 | 0% | −92 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| May 28 | 0% | −90 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| May 20 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| June 15 | 0% | −75 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| June 7 | 0% | −78 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| December 31 | 0% | −58 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| June 30 | 0% | −73 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| July 31 | 0% | −62 pts | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137d |  adonpoli | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,369 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  thegreengem6 fills | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $559,440 | −$560 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | usdcslow | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,650 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | fivehouse | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,293 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | almostunmarried | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,642 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 138d | keepsfailingupwards | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,128 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 138d |  Bouplai | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,260 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | 123456789101112 | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,476 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | eightywan | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,323 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | wzqs | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,698 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 140d |  Quantollah | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,173 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 140d |  Lanilo | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,452 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 140d |  d1k212 fills | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $60,503 | −$213 −0.4% | — |
| 140d |  JonaMar666 | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,695 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | thegreengem3 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $164,625 | +$211 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | GingFring | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $162,747 | +$163 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | Queasy-Vendor | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,032,655 | +$1,034 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | Caring-Employ-Espalier | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $409,514 | +$410 +0.1% | 20 |
| 140d | 0330330332 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $58,217 | +$88 +0.2% | 20 |
| 140d |  Ahpo | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | Extra-Small-Weapon13 fills | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $42,116 | −$84 −0.2% | — |
| 140d |  HorribleWork | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $68,136 | −$137 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | Dull-Dogwood2 fills | May 24 | BuyNo<1¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 |
| 140d | iSway | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,061 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | nickthechopper2 fills | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,626 | −$27 −0.2% | — |
| 140d | Whole-Rating6 fills | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $16,123 | −$32 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | Top1-J | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | Romo99 | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $17,563 | −$35 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | DooBieZ | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,885 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | Awkward-Bride | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,441 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | Sarcastic-Minimalism | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,374 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | mousty | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,970 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | mousty | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,972 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d |  100USDollars | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | Informal-Budget | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $68,365 | +$137 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d |  Writeoff2 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $41,482 | +$58 +0.1% | 20 |
| 141d | LmaoIloveyou2 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $54,520 | +$118 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | May 24 | BuyNo<1¢ | $2,568 | −$2,568 −100% | 27 |
| 141d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,803 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly4 fills | May 24 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $44,672 | −$618 −1.4% | — |
| 141d |  Gleaming-Pear8 fills | May 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $83,042 | +$751 +0.9% | 20 |
| 141d | onekey02 | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,976 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d |  DonationsReceiver | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,147 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d | notsosure6 | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,619 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 141d | WhateverXYZ | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,671 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 141d | zwxokx2 | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $18,647 | −$37 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | JamesBonder0072 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $44,162 | +$89 +0.2% | 20 |
| 142d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $149,550 | −$450 −0.3% | — |
| 142d | hebi007 | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $50,420 | +$152 +0.3% | 20 |
| 142d | DonaldinhoTrumpito | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $149,550 | +$450 +0.3% | 20 |
| 142d | d1k215 fills | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,940 | +$93 +0.4% | 20 |
| 142d | 0xb1b3…a386 | May 24 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,495 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 142d |  ScottyNooo5 fills | May 24 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $39,718 | +$644 +1.6% | 20 |
| 142d |  Da-Joker | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,940 | +$60 +0.4% | 20 |
| 142d |  ProfessionalPunter | May 24 | SellYes100¢ | $11,486 | −$58 −0.5% | — |
| 142d |  poorersob | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 142d | 0xfifr4t0g0vkdkefp | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,490 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 142d | Elias.Thornwell | May 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,880 | +$48 +0.3% | 20 |
| 142d | PixlWraith | May 24 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,320 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 142d | adonpoli | May 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,427 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
UssTrippingHigh85 shares
yesworld281,091,683 shares
tetrose404,014 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for May 24 means the market gives it about 100%.