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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 27 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 25 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 26 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 28 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 30 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 29 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 31 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 18 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 20 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 21 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 22 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 24 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199d | Sloppydo2 fills | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,250 | +$110 +1.5% | 20 |
| 199d | phsr | March 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 |
| 200d | March 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $99,078 | +$99 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 200d | JusDuC | March 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 200d | qwe258 | March 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 200d | March 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,139 | +$29 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 200d | Peppery-Espalier | March 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,543 | +$24 +1.6% | 20 |
| 200d | Uncomfortable-Fundraising | March 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,231 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 200d | Awkward-Bride | March 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,798 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 200d | Trustinghorse | March 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,482 | +$47 +1.3% | 20 |
| 200d | Sloppydo2 fills | March 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,639 | +$117 +3.2% | 21 |
| 200d | March 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,055 | +$16 +1.5% | 21 | |
| 201d | Uncomfortable-Fundraising | March 30 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$130 +13% | 23 |
| 201d | March 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,563 | +$151 +4.2% | 21 | |
| 201d | peter239784 | March 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,119 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 201d | Ofaaa | March 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 202d | dube | March 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,736 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 202d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | March 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,020 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 202d | Virtuous-Will | March 27 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | −$59 −4.9% | — |
| 202d | Trustinghorse2 fills | March 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,293 | +$57 +1.3% | 20 |
| 202d | Awkward-Bride | March 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 202d | March 29 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,542 | +$80 +5.2% | 21 | |
| 202d | March 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — | |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $132,334 | +$213 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 202d | texture | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,646 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 202d | zine13 | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,978 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,897 | +$66 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,437 | +$23 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 202d | cripes3 | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 202d | Mithrandiric | March 29 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,625 | +$123 +4.7% | 21 |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,873 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,131 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 | |
| 202d | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,239 | +$60 +1.8% | 20 | |
| 202d | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,728 | −$22 −1.3% | — | |
| 202d | Cherut | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$12 −1.2% | — |
| 202d | March 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,864 | +$67 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 202d | trader-05ddbe2e | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,361 | −$18 −1.3% | — |
| 203d | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | −$10 −0.7% | — | |
| 203d | March 28 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,952 | +$82 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 203d | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,366 | −$10 −0.7% | — | |
| 203d | d83eb0F | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 203d | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | −$9 −0.7% | — | |
| 203d | Virtuous-Will | March 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | −$14 −1.1% | — |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,709 | +$73 +1.3% | 20 | |
| 203d | OfirBlum | March 23 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | −$24 −1.8% | — |
| 203d | Awkward-Bride | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
| 203d | March 23 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,554 | −$120 −4.7% | — | |
| 203d | Trustinghorse | March 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,944 | +$104 +1.1% | 20 |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$22 +2.1% | 20 | |
| 203d | Arman2 | March 23 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,902 | −$109 −5.7% | — |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $8,863 | +$432 +4.9% | 21 | |
| 203d | Arman22 fills | March 23 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,327 | +$324 +9.7% | 21 |
| 203d | March 23 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,706 | −$372 −10% | — | |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,546 | +$27 +1.7% | 20 | |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,031 | +$35 +1.7% | 20 | |
| 203d | Anonretard | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,648 | +$29 +1.7% | 20 |
| 203d | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | +$37 +2.0% | 20 | |
| 203d | wowdontrug | March 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$34 +2.1% | 20 |
| 203d | dube3 fills | March 23 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,805 | +$384 +5.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for March 23 means the market gives it about 0%.