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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 30 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 18 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 19 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 21 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 22 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 26 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 27 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 28 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 29 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −26 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 193d | welcometowinnercircle2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,000 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 193d | ddolsw123r | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,498 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 193d |  cookiejar | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,366 | +$69 +1.1% | 4 |
| 193d | peter239784 | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,023 | +$10 +1.0% | 4 |
| 193d | oidoioi | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,195 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 193d | Awkward-Bride | March 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | +$230 +15% | 4 |
| 193d | Flimsy-FibreNew account | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$49 +0.5% | 4 |
| 200d | CHISCARU | March 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | +$54 +3.5% | 4 |
| 200d | OnChainCassandra | March 30 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,937 | +$158 +5.4% | 4 |
| 203d | CHISCARU | March 27 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$43 +4.0% | 5 |
| 204d | kuisi | March 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,156 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 205d | VickiWilliams3667 | March 25 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | −$20 −1.6% | — |
| 205d | da66ers | March 25 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | −$22 −1.7% | — |
| 205d | StephanieKelly2428 | March 26 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,443 | −$76 −5.3% | — |
| 207d |  DaMonkeyHope | March 25 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | +$104 +6.8% | 4 |
| 207d | StephanieKelly2428 | March 26 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$167 +12% | 4 |
| 207d | VickiWilliams3667 | March 25 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$203 +18% | 4 |
| 207d | da66ers | March 25 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$191 +18% | 4 |
| 208d | CHISCARU | March 22 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,622 | +$49 +3.0% | 4 |
| 208d |  Cloverince | March 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,143 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 208d |  HomeAloneNope | March 20 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,489 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 208d | HomeAloneNope | March 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 208d |  Quantintel | March 22 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,842 | +$100 +5.4% | 4 |
| 208d | MathewTaylor8874 | March 30 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,054 | −$1,054 −100% | 4 |
| 209d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | March 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,404 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d | HomeAloneNope | March 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,294 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 210d | AshleyHarris8339 | March 25 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,444 | +$500 +20% | 4 |
| 210d | universidadonline | March 25 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | +$321 +20% | 4 |
| 210d | LoriSilva6031 | March 25 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | +$244 +15% | 4 |
| 210d | Odysseus7 | March 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,265 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 211d |  Warren-Buffett | March 18 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
Lavincey100 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 30 means the market gives it about 100%.