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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 | 100% | +55 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 9 or earlier | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 11 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 12 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 13 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 14 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 15 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No strike | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401d | tanazana | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,243 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 402d |  Dumbeldor20032 fills | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $13,057 | −$16 −0.1% | — |
| 402d | ACAB1213AcAb | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,303 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 402d |  Kimomo | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,384 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 402d | wokerjoesleeper | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,165 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 402d |  Flipadelphia2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,972 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | runningBTC | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,180 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 402d | Pleasant-Passenger | September 10 | SellYes>99¢ | $15,034 | −$30 −0.2% | — |
| 402d |  tourists4 fills | September 10 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,583 | +$120 +1.6% | 20 |
| 402d | cigarettes2 fills | September 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,575 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | cigarettes2 fills | September 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,575 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d |  duderr2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,164 | +$58 +2.7% | 20 |
| 402d |  Car7 fills | September 10 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $19,922 | +$1,188 +6.0% | 20 |
| 402d | duderr | September 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d |  ImJustKen | September 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,295 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d |  classified | September 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,505 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 402d |  ondra123 | September 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d |  HolyMoses7 | September 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,818 | +$32 +0.5% | 20 |
| 402d | 0x97cc…bbbf | September 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,808 | +$38 +1.0% | 20 |
| 402d |  Cookedtan | September 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | Cookedtan | September 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 402d | Cookedtan | September 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d | Cookedtan | September 15 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,105 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 402d |  Ahpo | September 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,207 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 402d | Cookedtan | No strike | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d | Cookedtan | September 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,108 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 402d |  LINKEIN | September 10 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,816 | +$39 +1.0% | 20 |
| 402d |  ILOVEYOUBABYZZ2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,661 | +$193 +5.3% | 20 |
| 402d |  roadmapper2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $10,570 | +$3,420 +32% | 22 |
| 402d | cashy3 fills | September 10 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,177 | +$363 +5.9% | 20 |
| 402d |  Pulser | September 10 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$75 +5.3% | 20 |
| 402d | tanazana | September 10 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,990 | +$260 +4.3% | 20 |
| 402d | Doennja1232 fills | September 10 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,950 | +$329 +8.3% | 21 |
| 402d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $8,737 | +$1,096 +13% | 21 |
| 402d | Pleasant-Passenger | September 10 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$260 +13% | 21 |
| 402d | ondra123 | September 10 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$300 +18% | 21 |
| 402d | Dumbeldor20034 fills | September 10 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $7,832 | +$674 +8.6% | 21 |
| 402d | zizar3 | September 10 | BuyNo11¢ → 0¢ | $1,264 | −$1,264 −100% | 24 |
| 402d | Car2 fills | September 10 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $11,067 | −$1,200 −11% | — |
| 402d | runningBTC2 fills | September 10 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,376 | +$156 +6.6% | 20 |
| 402d | maybeexpert | September 10 | BuyNo22¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 23 |
| 402d | horiz0n3 fills | September 10 | BuyNo27¢ → 0¢ | $14,108 | −$14,108 −100% | 33 |
| 402d | RocoSaki | September 10 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$791 +26% | 21 |
| 402d | Johnson36 | September 10 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$528 +49% | 22 |
| 402d | BAZIMAN | September 10 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $6,211 | +$3,059 +49% | 22 |
| 402d | Lol123555 | September 11 | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 22 |
| 402d | JustABet | September 10 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $11,750 | +$5,789 +49% | 22 |
| 402d | quanterty | September 9 or earlier | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$29 +0.3% | 20 |
| 402d | 0x97cc…bbbf | September 9 or earlier | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$53 +4.2% | 20 |
| 402d | Hoth74 | September 10 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 22 |
| 403d | JustABet | September 9 or earlier | SellYes7¢ → 0¢ | $1,493 | +$1,493 +100% | — |
| 403d | maybeexpert | September 9 or earlier | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $6,149 | −$3,028 −49% | — |
| 403d | maybeexpert | September 9 or earlier | BuyNo37¢ → 100¢ | $2,829 | +$4,820 +170% | 25 |
| 403d |  MEPP | September 9 or earlier | SellYes64¢ → 0¢ | $2,981 | +$2,981 +100% | — |
| 403d | Paner | September 9 or earlier | BuyYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,290 | −$1,290 −100% | 21 |
| 403d |  WordleAddict | September 9 or earlier | BuyNo36¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$8,710 +178% | 26 |
| 403d | JustABet | September 9 or earlier | BuyYes73¢ → 0¢ | $3,308 | −$3,308 −100% | 22 |
This market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate between September 9 and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 10 means the market gives it about 100%.