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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 623d | ThereIsNoSpoon | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,952 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 628d | goldingboy4 fills | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $12,775 | +$219 +1.7% | 4 |
| 628d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,430 | +$66 +1.9% | 4 |
| 629d |  asico | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$37 +1.8% | 4 |
| 636d | TheBoyBilly... | Megaquake in January? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,835 | −$165 −3.4% | — |
| 644d | MakerOne | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,133 | +$89 +4.2% | 4 |
| 647d | lilypop2 fills | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,884 | +$216 +5.6% | 4 |
| 648d |  Tenebrus7 | Megaquake in January? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,093 | −$157 −7.5% | — |
| 651d | Arthur1337 | Megaquake in January? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | −$76 −6.4% | — |
| 653d | nonkenny904 fills | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $13,014 | +$857 +6.6% | 4 |
| 654d | lowrisk242 fills | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,666 | +$398 +4.6% | 4 |
| 654d | Arthur1337 | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$63 +5.3% | 4 |
| 654d |  How.Dare.You | Megaquake in January? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,448 | −$181 −5.3% | — |
| 654d | How.Dare.You | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $10,150 | +$534 +5.3% | 4 |
| 654d | Octopod | Megaquake in January? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,891 | −$142 −7.5% | — |
| 654d | Octopod2 fills | Megaquake in January? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,486 | +$636 +6.7% | 4 |
solomun1 sharesA "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between January 1 and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
