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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >30% | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >50% | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d |  johnnyA | >30% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,029 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | johnnyA | >50% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,307 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 258d | sadaccount | >30% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,313 | +$19 +1.5% | 4 |
| 258d |  BeneGesseritVoice2 fills | >50% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,662 | +$43 +0.9% | 4 |
| 258d | BeneGesseritVoice | >30% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,858 | +$28 +1.5% | 4 |
| 259d |  49023809234904 | >30% | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,126 | −$154 −4.9% | — |
| 259d |  Parz1vaI | >50% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$18 +1.7% | 5 |
| 259d | scottycam | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,622 | +$81 +3.1% | 5 |
| 259d |  MettaWorldPeace004 fills | >30% | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,869 | +$225 +3.8% | 4 |
| 259d | Parz1vaI3 fills | >30% | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,696 | +$307 +4.6% | 5 |
| 260d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | >30% | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,385 | −$100 −4.2% | — |
| 260d | vodkahartini | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,010 | +$62 +3.1% | 5 |
| 260d | 49023809234904 | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$40 +3.2% | 5 |
| 260d |  BookTrader | >30% | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,119 | −$231 −7.4% | — |
| 261d | dfg54ehf | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$37 +2.7% | 4 |
| 261d | fghf5hg | >30% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,365 | +$35 +2.6% | 4 |
| 261d | zsx4fh | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,364 | +$36 +2.7% | 4 |
| 261d | fhtr54 | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,361 | +$39 +2.9% | 4 |
| 261d | jh76t6 | >30% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$40 +3.0% | 4 |
| 262d | BookTrader2 fills | >30% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,148 | +$201 +6.4% | 4 |
| 263d |  Oompa-Loompa | >30% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | +$67 +6.4% | 4 |
| 264d |  chungguskhan | >30% | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $5,772 | +$680 +12% | 5 |
| 264d |  SwissMiss | >30% | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,461 | +$554 +12% | 5 |
| 265d |  Casdifer | >30% | BuyYes15¢ → 0¢ | $2,094 | −$2,094 −100% | 11 |
| 265d |  Tenebrus7 | >30% | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,098 | +$218 +10% | 5 |
| 266d |  MasonsConqueredRome | >50% | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,462 | +$110 +7.5% | 4 |
| 266d | nedsta | >50% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | +$97 +6.4% | 4 |
| 267d |  ProfessionalPunter2 fills | >30% | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,491 | +$289 +8.3% | 4 |
| 267d |  Dragontree | >30% | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,030 | +$249 +8.2% | 4 |
| 267d |  wish- | >50% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$75 +6.4% | 4 |
| 268d | kevin-airdrop | >50% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$66 +6.4% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28-over-50 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for >30% means the market gives it about 0%.