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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 7 | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 5 | 0% | −50 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 6 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 8 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 9 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 10 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 11 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 12 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 13 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 15+ | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 435d | brunchie | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,311 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | einstein | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,903 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 435d | BrokenRectum | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  scout | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $52,545 | −$53 −0.1% | — |
| 435d | Ma12mamP | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,196 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 435d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,124 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | alonsoo | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,300 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | acascuseme | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,753 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 435d |  neerg | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,590 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 435d | scout3 fills | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $38,346 | +$205 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d |  verysensitive3 fills | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,887 | +$94 +0.4% | 20 |
| 435d | astromage | August 7 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,917 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d | 5551ab | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 435d | meowmeowcookie | August 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | −$26 −1.4% | — |
| 435d | icantwinanymore | August 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 435d | h0a80 | August 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,463 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 435d | cigarettes2 fills | August 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,561 | +$29 +0.6% | 20 |
| 435d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,928 | +$77 +0.8% | 20 |
| 435d | cipherpilot2 fills | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,901 | +$48 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d | freecristian | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | August 7 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,464 | −$530 −12% | — |
| 435d |  TeemuPukki2 fills | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,440 | +$45 +1.0% | 20 |
| 435d | planetnine | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$20 +1.3% | 20 |
| 435d | Drowerz10 fills | August 7 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $51,301 | −$1,677 −3.3% | — |
| 435d |  TealV | August 7 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | +$30 +1.5% | 20 |
| 435d |  Dropper | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,147 | +$57 +1.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  Waterfall | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,340 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 435d | nicdan | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 435d |  CoffeeDespiser | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,282 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 435d | somerandomdude | August 7 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,678 | −$20 −0.5% | — |
| 435d | cipherpilot | August 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,321 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d | waawaaa | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,556 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 435d | neerg | August 7 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,283 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 435d |  TheWolfOfPoly | August 7 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,800 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 435d |  ScottyNooo5 fills | August 7 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $15,481 | +$238 +1.5% | 20 |
| 435d | 83962392876 fills | August 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $13,202 | +$446 +3.4% | 21 |
| 435d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 435d | TheWolfOfPoly | August 7 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,029 | +$42 +2.1% | 20 |
| 435d | MacMoneysac3 fills | August 7 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $9,476 | +$1,023 +11% | 23 |
| 435d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | August 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 435d |  Aragorn-II | August 7 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$31 +1.9% | 20 |
| 435d | somerandomdude | August 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,851 | +$54 +1.4% | 20 |
| 435d |  9flare | August 7 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$35 +2.4% | 20 |
| 435d | MacMoneysac | August 7 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,403 | −$255 −4.7% | — |
| 435d |  Car | August 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 20 |
| 435d | tennisbowling4 fills | August 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $34,656 | +$1,108 +3.2% | 20 |
| 435d |  SQP3G | August 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$33 +2.7% | 20 |
| 435d | Shimeji2 fills | August 7 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,057 | +$130 +2.6% | 21 |
| 435d | Naropoly | August 7 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,570 | +$83 +5.3% | 20 |
| 436d |  HoshinoAI | August 7 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,312 | +$62 +4.7% | 20 |
| 436d |  0xdc3E831cad | August 7 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$90 +6.4% | 20 |
| 436d |  Cookedtan4 fills | August 8 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,149 | +$161 +2.6% | 20 |
| 436d | Cookedtan4 fills | August 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,286 | +$23 +0.4% | 20 |
| 436d | Cookedtan4 fills | August 15+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,169 | +$140 +2.3% | 20 |
| 436d | Cookedtan4 fills | August 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,279 | +$30 +0.5% | 20 |
| 436d | Cookedtan4 fills | August 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,290 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 436d | Cookedtan4 fills | August 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,285 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 436d | blackbelt | August 7 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,265 | +$142 +4.3% | 20 |
| 436d |  kickstandhater | August 7 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$74 +4.4% | 20 |
| 436d | H2g38K12 | August 7 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,989 | +$170 +4.3% | 20 |
Hyph40,009 sharesThis market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 7 means the market gives it about 100%.