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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +40 pts | +88 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 4 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 468d | 0xd7e9…dd91 | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,265 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 468d | hossoland | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,162 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 468d | ro0k | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,603 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 468d |  JaidenAnimations | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,942 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 468d | LBZone4 fills | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,176 | +$52 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | DontTrustFakeMedia | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d |  0xdc3E831cad | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,988 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 468d | 0xdc3E831cad | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,323 | +$10 +0.3% | 4 |
| 468d | Wonfo | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,720 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 468d | Perky-Tattler | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,774 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 468d |  GayPride | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,992 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 468d | denizz | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,183 | −$33 −0.4% | — |
| 468d | 64MGX75VLQ2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$11 +0.4% | 4 |
| 468d | polytrador | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,079 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 468d | amused85 | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,364 | −$16 −0.5% | — |
| 468d | failedgenius | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | Fledermaus | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,383 | −$17 −0.7% | — |
| 468d | Fledermaus2 fills | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,974 | −$26 −0.4% | — |
| 468d | LBZone2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,764 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 468d | Logan. | December 31 | SellYes100¢ | $4,975 | −$25 −0.5% | — |
| 468d | 0x97cc…bbbf | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,308 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 468d |  djwcx | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 468d |  scout4 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,889 | +$52 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | aaffhhll | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,485 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 468d |  ProfessionalPunter | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,392 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 468d |  duderr | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,867 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 468d | scout | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,508 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d |  .jeet | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 468d |  Car | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,497 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 468d | couchfarm3 fills | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,849 | +$32 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | Calculated | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,875 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 468d |  Ban4ik5 fills | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,153 | +$36 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | LFC8 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,147 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | Ban4ik | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,414 | +$27 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | bruhbru | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 468d | Ban4ik | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,143 | −$18 −0.3% | — |
| 468d |  HouseAlwaysWins | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,341 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 468d | 72929292 | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | −$17 −0.8% | — |
| 468d | Happiness... | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,642 | −$77 −0.7% | — |
| 468d | Modest-Substitution | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,537 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 468d | Modest-Substitution | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,462 | −$25 −0.3% | — |
| 468d | Egodoge | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,035 | −$15 −0.3% | — |
| 468d |  Hopingtomakemoney | July 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,028 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 468d |  debased2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,902 | +$33 +0.6% | 4 |
| 468d | nostradamus-markets2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $8,202 | +$1,216 +15% | 4 |
| 468d | 0x5f2f…21ba | July 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,233 | −$43 −1.0% | — |
| 468d | qwufnr-3849j | July 31 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,829 | +$9 +0.5% | 4 |
| 468d | .jeet | December 31 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 4 |
| 468d | fillit98 | July 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,394 | +$6 +0.4% | 4 |
| 468d |  Flipadelphia | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,753 | +$14 +0.8% | 4 |
| 468d | ilex | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,982 | −$18 −0.9% | — |
| 468d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | July 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,910 | +$90 +1.0% | 4 |
| 468d | pantomime2 fills | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,369 | +$175 +1.9% | 4 |
| 468d |  Erasmus. | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,943 | +$40 +1.0% | 4 |
| 468d | Erasmus. | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,014 | +$110 +2.2% | 4 |
| 468d |  aenews2 | December 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $21,276 | +$658 +3.1% | 4 |
| 468d | oscarod | July 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | −$33 −3.1% | — |
| 468d | Nimcd9 | July 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$65 +2.0% | 4 |
| 468d |  Kickstand7 | July 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $13,300 | +$700 +5.3% | 4 |
| 468d | unwillingly-public | July 31 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $9,012 | +$678 +7.5% | 4 |
garbagedump3 sharesThis is a market on whether Elon Musk will establish a new political party by a specified date.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 31 means the market gives it about 100%.