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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 16 | 0% | −2 pts | −54 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 10 | 0% | −2 pts | −56 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 28 | 0% | −2 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 9 | 100% | +69 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 2 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 30 | 100% | +25 pts | +57 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 21 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 29 | 0% | −2 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 12 | 0% | 0 pts | −62 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 27 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 26 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 11 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 23 | 0% | −2 pts | −37 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 18 | 0% | −2 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 15 | 100% | +52 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 100% | +41 pts | +51 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 25 | 100% | +52 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −1 pts | −55 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −57 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 19 | 100% | +65 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 3 | 100% | +69 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 13 | 0% | 0 pts | −59 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 14 | 0% | 0 pts | −65 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 6 | 100% | +37 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 7 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 8 | 100% | +23 pts | +63 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 5 | 100% | +51 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 4 | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 1 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | Poory2 fills | January 29 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,409 | +$120 +2.2% | 20 |
| 258d | Riddle-Master | January 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,983 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | Michael5289 | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,631 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 258d | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,191 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 259d | dudukos | January 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,053 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | cashy | January 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 259d | dudukos | January 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$56 +1.9% | 20 |
| 259d | January 31 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $3,208 | +$280 +8.7% | 20 | |
| 259d | January 29 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,749 | +$61 +1.6% | 20 | |
| 259d | cashy2 fills | January 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,125 | +$31 +0.4% | 20 |
| 259d | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,057 | −$6 −0.3% | — | |
| 259d | 12100K | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,638 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | Delicious-PulleyNew account | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,144 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | Imnotabot2008 | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,039 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 260d | Lukyyyyyyy | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,733 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | Muki | January 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,124 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 260d | January 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,715 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 260d | Antitrust002 | January 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,455 | −$45 −1.0% | — |
| 260d | cashy2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,385 | +$152 +2.8% | 21 |
| 260d | dudukos | January 30 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$721 +24% | 25 |
| 260d | January 30 | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $1,370 | −$1,370 −100% | 28 | |
| 260d | January 30 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $4,475 | −$1,418 −32% | — | |
| 260d | BAZIMAN | January 30 | SellYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,969 | −$718 −36% | — |
| 260d | Nasokika | January 29 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | −$105 −6.4% | — |
| 260d | Violet-Vinyl2 fills | January 30 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $9,499 | +$3,558 +37% | 25 |
| 260d | cashy2 fills | January 29 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,896 | +$553 +9.4% | 21 |
| 260d | January 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$113 +3.8% | 21 | |
| 260d | Spry-FragranceNew account | January 30 | BuyNo35¢ → 0¢ | $1,407 | −$1,407 −100% | 35 |
| 260d | January 29 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,666 | +$553 +12% | 22 | |
| 260d | frefrefre | January 29 | SellYes27¢ → 0¢ | $1,104 | +$1,104 +100% | — |
| 261d | January 28 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$96 +4.8% | 21 | |
| 261d | January 28 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$106 +5.3% | 21 | |
| 261d | January 28 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,549 | +$99 +6.4% | 21 | |
| 261d | Letsdoit112 fills | January 29 | BuyNo52¢ → 100¢ | $2,209 | +$2,032 +92% | 25 |
| 261d | January 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$73 +4.2% | 21 | |
| 261d | Poligarch | January 28 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$108 +9.9% | 22 |
| 261d | ibb1x2 | January 28 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | −$225 −14% | — |
| 261d | Wicked-Bondsman | January 29 | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,259 | +$883 +70% | 28 |
| 262d | Violet-Vinyl3 fills | January 28 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $11,549 | +$6,584 +57% | 22 |
| 262d | xcvsdf2342wer2 fills | January 29 | SellNo44¢ → 100¢ | $3,520 | −$4,480 −127% | — |
| 262d | retyrt454 fills | January 29 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $7,860 | −$7,860 −100% | 25 |
| 262d | retyrt452 fills | January 29 | SellYes56¢ → 0¢ | $4,349 | +$4,349 +100% | — |
| 263d | January 27 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,360 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 263d | Trustinghorse | January 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,065 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | Michael52892 fills | January 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,978 | +$22 +0.6% | 20 |
| 263d | Lukyyyyyyy | January 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,918 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | dudukos | January 27 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,387 | −$34 −1.0% | — |
| 263d | January 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 | |
| 263d | dudukos | January 27 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$420 +14% | 21 |
| 263d | lgtnb8. | January 28 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $2,671 | −$2,671 −100% | 22 |
| 263d | lgtnb5.2 fills | January 28 | SellYes57¢ → 0¢ | $2,833 | +$2,833 +100% | — |
| 263d | lgtnb8.2 fills | January 28 | BuyNo43¢ → 100¢ | $3,010 | +$3,990 +133% | 23 |
| 263d | lgtnb5. | January 28 | BuyYes57¢ → 0¢ | $1,140 | −$1,140 −100% | 22 |
| 263d | t6yhdefgd | January 27 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,496 | +$704 +47% | 22 |
| 263d | rubick7 | January 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,076 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | Imnotabot2008 | January 27 | SellYes15¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$6,668 −554% | — |
| 264d | Michael5289 | January 26 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,071 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 264d | rtyuhwAEdf | January 29 | SellYes41¢ → 0¢ | $4,510 | +$4,510 +100% | — |
| 264d | rtyuhwAEdf3 fills | January 29 | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $5,740 | −$5,740 −100% | 25 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for January 16 means the market gives it about 0%.