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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 3 | 0% | −4 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 2 | 100% | +12 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 29 | 100% | +36 pts | — | 32¢ · 100¢ (68¢) | — | ended |
| July 1 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · 44¢ | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · 94¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100d | nickthechopper | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,316 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 100d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,469 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 101d |  lranon2nd | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,252 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 101d |  tetrase3 fills | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $124,875 | −$125 −0.1% | — |
| 102d | massive-pp | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 102d | Tidy-Jumbo | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 102d |  Sacha1626 | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,369 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  EmeraldEdge | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,129 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  tetrose2 fills | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $65,665 | −$66 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  Tenebrus7 | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,527 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | BwTrump2 fills | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,763 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  ViataBateFilmul | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 103d | Wagmi420 | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,560 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  clazzy1 | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,874 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  ab7x7 | July 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,250 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 103d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $13,489 | +$4,204 +31% | 10 |
| 103d | 0x8931…a90c2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,281 | +$253 +7.7% | 10 |
| 103d | Tenebrus7 | July 4 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,704 | +$191 +11% | 10 |
| 103d | pkz | July 4 | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | −$168 −16% | — |
| 103d |  ImJustKen | July 4 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $9,886 | +$4,653 +47% | 10 |
| 103d |  Arbguy | July 4 | BuyNo62¢ → 100¢ | $5,007 | +$3,095 +62% | 10 |
| 103d | tetrose3 fills | July 4 | BuyNo57¢ → 100¢ | $31,593 | +$24,137 +76% | 10 |
| 103d |  .ethguy | July 4 | SellNo58¢ → 100¢ | $1,706 | −$1,221 −72% | — |
| 103d | 0x955c…990f7 fills | July 4 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $28,108 | −$28,108 −100% | 11 |
| 103d | .ethguy | July 4 | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $1,016 | +$651 +64% | 10 |
| 103d | Wagmi420 | July 4 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,602 | +$1,076 +67% | 10 |
| 103d |  Car2 fills | July 4 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $3,608 | +$2,441 +68% | 10 |
| 103d | HornyBibi | July 4 | SellYes46¢ → 0¢ | $2,396 | +$2,396 +100% | — |
| 103d | Car | July 4 | SellNo54¢ → 100¢ | $2,239 | −$1,875 −84% | — |
| 103d | manchot | July 4 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,074 | −$1,074 −100% | 10 |
| 103d |  WordleAddict | July 4 | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,968 | −$1,968 −100% | 10 |
| 104d | ViataBateFilmul | July 4 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$997 +66% | 10 |
| 104d |  smellyEllie | July 4 | SellNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | −$717 −66% | — |
| 104d |  yen4u | July 4 | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$1,375 +100% | 10 |
| 104d |  slowdance | July 4 | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $3,616 | −$3,616 −100% | 13 |
yesworld2873,400 shares
Barboncino14,000 shares
nizhuanpeilv12,000 sharesA "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for July 4 means the market gives it about 0%.