Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 23 | 0% | — | −85 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 13 | 100% | +9 pts | +14 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 29 | 100% | +15 pts | +9 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 11 | 0% | −87 pts | −78 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| August 28 | 100% | +10 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 25 | 100% | +11 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 27 | 100% | +9 pts | +11 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| August 26 | 100% | +11 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 22 | 100% | +3 pts | +8 pts | 97¢ · 100¢ (3¢) | — | ended |
| August 31 | 100% | +8 pts | +7 pts | 96¢ · >99¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| August 17 | 100% | +10 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 15 | 100% | +16 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 18 | 100% | +11 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 30 | 100% | +13 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 24 | 100% | +9 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 5 | 100% | +12 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 19 | 100% | +8 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 12 | 100% | +11 pts | +14 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 2 | 0% | −16 pts | −55 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 4 | 100% | +15 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 8 | 100% | +4 pts | +6 pts | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| August 20 | 100% | +7 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 14 | 100% | +8 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 21 | 100% | +6 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 7 | 100% | +14 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 6 | 100% | +20 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 16 | 100% | +13 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 3 | 100% | +19 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 9 | 100% | +20 pts | +12 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 10 | 100% | +11 pts | +15 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 1 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48d | August 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 49d | inthemotion | August 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | August 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 50d | August 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,961 | −$10 −0.1% | — | |
| 50d | TestingMyGangster2 fills | August 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,584 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 50d | August 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $35,303 | −$35 −0.1% | — | |
| 50d | bondor | August 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,128 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 50d | Uncommon-Tabernacle-Lab | August 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,943 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 50d | HornyBibi | August 27 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$12 +1.1% | 4 |
| 50d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell6 fills | August 23 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $34,026 | +$1,635 +4.8% | 5 |
| 51d | PolBandit | August 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,504 | +$284 +1.5% | 4 |
| 51d | 0x4c68…6162 | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,972 | +$172 +1.1% | 4 |
| 51d | August 23 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,323 | −$99 −3.0% | — | |
| 51d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | August 23 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,121 | −$292 −2.9% | — |
| 51d | junkbonds | August 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$27 +2.1% | 4 |
| 51d | August 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,992 | +$14 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 51d | August 23 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,917 | −$83 −0.9% | — | |
| 52d | Kevindoto | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,928 | +$38 +0.6% | 4 |
| 52d | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,416 | +$70 +0.5% | 4 | |
| 52d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,861 | +$120 +1.2% | 4 |
| 52d | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,919 | +$104 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 52d | FlyingPlaty | August 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,832 | +$78 +2.0% | 4 |
| 52d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e22 fills | August 23 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,028 | +$202 +4.0% | 4 |
| 53d | jklsjdwoqejasdf2 fills | August 23 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,027 | +$385 +5.5% | 4 |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,487 | +$369 +6.7% | 4 | |
| 53d | Trenchstar | August 23 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | −$87 −6.3% | — |
| 53d | August 23 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,211 | −$207 −4.0% | — | |
| 53d | Arman2 | August 23 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$47 −4.4% | — |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$110 +3.8% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$111 −11% | — | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,449 | +$145 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $14,847 | +$557 +3.8% | 4 | |
| 53d | yougotme4 fills | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,409 | +$130 +1.0% | 4 |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,671 | +$77 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,577 | +$42 +1.6% | 4 | |
| 53d | cocococococo | August 23 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,264 | −$37 −1.6% | — |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,976 | +$24 +1.2% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,816 | −$54 −1.9% | — | |
| 53d | Cruel-Envy2 fills | August 23 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $10,496 | +$738 +7.0% | 5 |
| 53d | 5555five | August 23 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | +$428 +23% | 4 |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $7,425 | +$2,491 +34% | 4 | |
| 53d | Mustafalafel | August 23 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,190 | +$730 +33% | 4 |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $2,768 | +$966 +35% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$441 +33% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $8,952 | +$4,179 +47% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $1,509 | +$1,535 +102% | 4 | |
| 53d | inthemotion | August 23 | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $3,226 | −$3,226 −100% | 4 |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyNo54¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$2,019 +84% | 4 | |
| 53d | August 23 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,417 | −$1,417 −100% | 4 | |
| 62d | August 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 62d | 0x6202…f01a | August 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,312 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 64d | yougotme4 fills | August 13 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $31,843 | +$220 +0.7% | 4 |
| 64d | Peaceful-Fire-BellNew account | August 13 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $12,426 | +$837 +6.7% | 8 |
| 64d | August 13 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,232 | +$265 +3.7% | 5 | |
| 65d | August 12 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,453 | +$19 +1.3% | 4 | |
| 66d | August 11 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,610 | +$216 +13% | 4 | |
| 66d | August 11 | BuyYes97¢ → 0¢ | $1,055 | −$1,055 −100% | 4 | |
| 67d | August 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$120 +11% | 4 | |
| 73d | NeoOracle | August 4 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,973 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 74d | August 2 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,804 | +$21 +1.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for August 23 means the market gives it about 0%.