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Polymarket wallet 0xcba261e32d6474b9fc295f08772414e2c9cbc3d8 · on Polymarket since Jan 17, 2026 · also shown as Firsthand-Characterization
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 133 | 71¢ → 37¢ | $49 | −$45 −48% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 237 | 59¢ → 7¢ | $15 | −$125 −89% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 75 | 19¢ → 8¢ | $6 | −$8 −60% |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 168 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$102 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 218 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Tribute to America Rally?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 54 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 378 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$92 −100% |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 470 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$267 −100% |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 126 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 5 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.