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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–5.0% | 96% | — | +2 pts | 95¢ · 96¢ (1¢) | $180 | in 105d |
| 5.0–6.0% | 4% | — | −1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 105d |
| 3.0–4.0% | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $3.09K | in 105d |
| 8.0–9.0% | <1% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | in 105d |
| 9.0%+ | <1% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | in 105d |
| 2.0–3.0% | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 105d |
| 6.0-7.0% | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 105d |
| <1.0% | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 105d |
| 1.0–2.0% | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 105d |
| 7.0–8.0% | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 105d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26d | DongwangWin2 fills | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes90¢ → 96¢ | $4,082 | +$270 +6.6% | 17 |
| 27d | LIBAI2 fills | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes91¢ → 96¢ | $3,185 | +$157 +4.9% | 16 |
| 61d | Stableincome | 5.0–6.0% | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,340 | +$99 +7.4% | 10 |
| 86d | momo513 | 4.0–5.0% | SellYes87¢ → 96¢ | $2,596 | −$267 −10% | — |
| 89d | Supportive-Nod-Scratch | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes88¢ → 96¢ | $1,493 | +$129 +8.7% | 18 |
| 90d | Brown-Weasel-Coffee | 4.0–5.0% | SellYes85¢ → 96¢ | $2,552 | −$315 −12% | — |
| 94d | momo513 | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes86¢ → 96¢ | $2,570 | +$295 +11% | 20 |
| 94d | J-W | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes84¢ → 96¢ | $1,694 | +$232 +14% | 21 |
| 94d | mazw8 | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes84¢ → 96¢ | $2,520 | +$345 +14% | 21 |
| 94d | hqzxbktmrawplhncxfgdjyvsoeuikmtb | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes83¢ → 96¢ | $1,327 | +$200 +15% | 21 |
| 95d | Jjjh77660 | 4.0–5.0% | SellYes76¢ → 96¢ | $2,577 | −$641 −25% | — |
| 102d |  Chims | 5.0–6.0% | SellNo84¢ → 97¢ | $1,360 | −$195 −14% | — |
| 106d | Jjjh776602 fills | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes80¢ → 96¢ | $2,000 | +$388 +19% | 23 |
| 152d | yikaizhao19982 fills | 4.0–5.0% | SellNo23¢ → 5¢ | $3,067 | +$2,456 +80% | — |
| 157d | yikaizhao1998 | 4.0–5.0% | BuyNo25¢ → 5¢ | $2,417 | −$1,979 −82% | 34 |
| 172d |  0xrc | 4.0–5.0% | SellYes75¢ → 96¢ | $1,005 | −$267 −27% | — |
| 174d | lolomgggty | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes80¢ → 96¢ | $1,065 | +$208 +20% | 23 |
| 174d |  GollumGekko2 fills | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes76¢ → 96¢ | $3,745 | +$952 +25% | 26 |
| 177d | Brown-Weasel-Coffee | 4.0–5.0% | BuyYes67¢ → 96¢ | $6,093 | +$2,592 +43% | 30 |
| 181d | zhaoyk2 fills | 4.0–5.0% | BuyNo36¢ → 5¢ | $2,497 | −$2,183 −87% | 32 |
| 212d | Wry-MasterpieceNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo100¢ | $2,196 | +$4 +0.2% | 10 |
| 212d | Considerate-AnticipationNew account | 9.0%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,421 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | Mellow-PitNew account | 9.0%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,119 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | Considerate-AnticipationNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,420 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 212d | Remorseful-PillarNew account | 9.0%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 212d | Remorseful-PillarNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,013 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 212d | Corny-SliderNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,556 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 213d | Agonizing-ValanceNew account | 7.0–8.0% | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,034 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 213d | Fickle-GlanceNew account | 1.0–2.0% | SellNo96¢ → >99¢ | $1,683 | −$72 −4.3% | — |
| 213d | Fickle-GlanceNew account | 1.0–2.0% | BuyNo96¢ → >99¢ | $2,236 | +$98 +4.4% | 12 |
| 213d | Grounded-MethodNew account | 1.0–2.0% | BuyNo96¢ → >99¢ | $1,272 | +$56 +4.4% | 12 |
| 213d | Watery-CheetahNew account | <1.0% | SellNo93¢ → >99¢ | $1,428 | −$106 −7.4% | — |
| 213d | Unacceptable-LeverageNew account | <1.0% | SellNo93¢ → >99¢ | $1,962 | −$146 −7.4% | — |
| 213d | Distant-JoggingNew account | <1.0% | SellNo93¢ → >99¢ | $1,155 | −$86 −7.4% | — |
| 213d | Unacceptable-LeverageNew account | <1.0% | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $2,061 | +$46 +2.3% | 11 |
| 213d | Watery-CheetahNew account | <1.0% | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,501 | +$34 +2.3% | 11 |
| 213d | Distant-JoggingNew account | <1.0% | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,213 | +$27 +2.3% | 11 |
| 214d | Judicious-DisagreementNew account | 7.0–8.0% | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,055 | −$13 −1.3% | — |
| 214d | Esteemed-BandanaNew account | 7.0–8.0% | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,159 | +$16 +1.4% | 11 |
| 214d | Recent-VineyardNew account | 7.0–8.0% | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,058 | +$14 +1.4% | 11 |
| 214d | Judicious-DisagreementNew account | 7.0–8.0% | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,054 | +$14 +1.4% | 11 |
| 214d | Clumsy-PasteNew account | 7.0–8.0% | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,065 | +$15 +1.4% | 11 |
| 214d | Witty-CasseroleNew account | 7.0–8.0% | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,088 | +$15 +1.4% | 11 |
| 214d | Hurtful-Diamond-AuditoriumNew account | 6.0-7.0% | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,017 | −$23 −2.3% | — |
| 214d | Turbulent-GrannyNew account | 6.0-7.0% | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,412 | −$33 −2.3% | — |
| 214d | That-TalentNew account | 6.0-7.0% | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,258 | −$29 −2.3% | — |
| 214d | Rundown-SimpleNew account | 6.0-7.0% | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,095 | −$25 −2.3% | — |
| 214d | Rundown-SimpleNew account | 6.0-7.0% | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,093 | +$27 +2.5% | 11 |
| 214d | Turbulent-GrannyNew account | 6.0-7.0% | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,409 | +$35 +2.5% | 11 |
| 214d | That-TalentNew account | 6.0-7.0% | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,255 | +$32 +2.5% | 11 |
| 215d | Yellowish-MindNew account | 9.0%+ | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,575 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 215d | Precious-WritingNew account | 9.0%+ | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,118 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 215d | Yellowish-MindNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,575 | +$8 +0.5% | 10 |
| 215d | Precious-WritingNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,118 | +$11 +0.5% | 10 |
| 215d | Smug-HydrogenNew account | 9.0%+ | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,465 | +$7 +0.5% | 10 |
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 96¢ for 4.0–5.0% means the market gives it about 96%.