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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | 100% | +5 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 4.6% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 4.8% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5.0% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5.2% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5.5% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5.7% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 6.0% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d |  DEGENKHAN | 4.8% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,574 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | DEGENKHAN | 5.0% | SellNo>99¢ | $13,772 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  ZhangMuZhi- | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,845 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d | ZhangMuZhi-9 fills | 4.6% | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,225 | +$42 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d | ZhangMuZhi- | 4.8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,943 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d | qwe2582 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,942 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d |  noreasapa2 fills | 4.8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $113,886 | +$114 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d | DEGENKHAN3 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,268 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 289d | Skogeru | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d |  GollumGekko | 4.6% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 289d | 0xB16B00B52 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 291d | UrbanHorn | 4.6% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 292d | cly5 fills | 4.6% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,254 | −$146 −0.6% | — |
| 292d | Vilgefortz2 fills | 6.0% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,368 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 293d | Vilgefortz | 4.6% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,587 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 293d | burningfruit3373 | 5.0% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,487 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 294d |  VdeVolsa | 5.2% | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,181 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 295d |  esports095 | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 295d | cly5 fills | 5.0% | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,950 | −$238 −1.7% | — |
| 295d | mylord193 | 4.8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,964 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 295d | mylord193 | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,848 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 295d | burningfruit3373 | 5.2% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 295d | jwp99992 fills | 4.8% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $78,537 | +$398 +0.5% | 4 |
| 296d | jerry002fa | 4.8% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$20 +0.4% | 4 |
| 296d | jwp99992 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,561 | +$121 +0.3% | 4 |
| 296d |  Istaroth6 fills | 4.8% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $63,796 | +$696 +1.1% | 4 |
| 296d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | 4.8% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,596 | −$59 −0.7% | — |
| 296d |  UnderwriterGCR | 4.8% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | +$7 +0.6% | 4 |
| 296d | UnderwriterGCR | 4.6% | SellNo100¢ | $1,705 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 296d | Cryp | 5.0% | BuyNo100¢ | $1,493 | +$8 +0.5% | 4 |
| 296d | tiredShip2 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,837 | +$33 +0.6% | 4 |
| 297d | Istaroth9 fills | 4.6% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $53,644 | +$810 +1.5% | 4 |
| 297d |  taut-dogwood | 5.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,221 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 297d | QMG-CORE2 fills | 5.2% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,360 | +$74 +1.2% | 4 |
| 298d |  XAE12Archangel3 fills | 5.2% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,174 | +$343 +5.6% | 4 |
| 299d | cly18 fills | 5.2% | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $51,654 | −$1,547 −3.0% | — |
| 299d | pako4 fills | 4.8% | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $42,888 | −$799 −1.9% | — |
| 302d | cly2 fills | 4.8% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,302 | −$64 −1.0% | — |
| 302d | Skaliz2 fills | 4.8% | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,181 | −$496 −9.6% | — |
| 303d | Istaroth | 4.6% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,245 | −$18 −0.8% | — |
| 303d | taralynnbar | 5.2% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 304d | Istaroth | 4.8% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 304d | GondorCallsForAid | 5.7% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,065 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 304d |  Ffrcbjitefgjkoujj | 5.0% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,830 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 305d | Vilgefortz7 fills | 5.2% | BuyNo>99¢ | $56,573 | +$175 +0.3% | 4 |
| 306d | pako6 fills | 4.8% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $66,956 | +$1,550 +2.3% | 4 |
| 306d |  tmdi | 5.5% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,106 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 306d | Vilgefortz2 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,161 | +$39 +0.5% | 4 |
| 307d | Vilgefortz | 5.7% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,449 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 307d | MistahFox | 4.6% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,478 | −$16 −1.1% | — |
| 307d | BurningTime3 fills | 5.0% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,664 | −$260 −1.3% | — |
| 307d | tmdi | 5.5% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,131 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | Vilgefortz | 5.7% | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,096 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | Vilgefortz2 fills | 6.0% | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 309d | Vilgefortz | 5.5% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,774 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 310d | pako4 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $21,918 | +$1,147 +5.2% | 4 |
| 310d | pako11 fills | 4.6% | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $121,756 | +$9,996 +8.2% | 4 |
| 310d | XAE12Archangel4 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,880 | +$120 +1.0% | 4 |
| 310d |  NotOver3 fills | 5.0% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,152 | +$197 +4.7% | 4 |
| 310d | KimsCrunchCut2 fills | 5.2% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,478 | +$22 +0.9% | 4 |
GayPride4,450 shares
BabyYoda12100 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 4.5% means the market gives it about 100%.