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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Meeting before May 11 | 100% | 0 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 23 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 2 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 3 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 4 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 5 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 6 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 8 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| May 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159d | Trustinghorse | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,961 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 160d | Talkative-Copying | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 161d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,415 | +$98 +4.1% | 5 | |
| 161d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $19,103 | +$1,292 +6.8% | 5 | |
| 161d | Trustinghorse | May 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,085 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d | 0xe617…f251 | May 10 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$55 +1.1% | 4 |
| 162d | mm4ker | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$54 +4.2% | 5 |
| 162d | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,268 | −$82 −6.5% | — | |
| 162d | Sweet-Balcony | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | −$149 −7.6% | — |
| 163d | May 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,165 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 163d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,277 | +$96 +7.5% | 5 | |
| 163d | 0xbF4d2023826 fills | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $18,520 | −$3,572 −19% | — |
| 163d | Round-Vacation | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$96 +8.7% | 5 |
| 163d | 0x49F206 | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$157 −12% | — |
| 163d | PikaCHU448 | May 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 164d | i18z | May 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$10 +0.8% | 4 |
| 164d | i18z | May 10 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$60 +5.3% | 4 |
| 164d | i18z | May 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 164d | i18z | May 9 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$45 +3.9% | 4 |
| 164d | 0xe617…f251 | May 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$21 +1.0% | 4 |
| 164d | Sakura-Kinomoto | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,315 | −$245 −19% | — |
| 164d | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$100 −9.9% | — | |
| 164d | May 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,916 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 164d | hardworkmarry | May 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 164d | 625625625 | May 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 164d | 0xe617…f251 | May 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 165d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,786 | +$134 +7.5% | 4 | |
| 165d | Trim-Caution | May 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,744 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 165d | 0xbF4d2023826 fills | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $21,276 | +$1,745 +8.2% | 4 |
| 165d | Kdjdjd | May 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,696 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 165d | May 10 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,971 | +$45 +2.3% | 4 | |
| 166d | 83CAAA | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$104 −9.6% | — |
| 166d | fwfwefweg | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,642 | −$143 −8.7% | — |
| 166d | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,760 | −$240 −8.7% | — | |
| 166d | Whitneey | May 6 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 166d | Parkeruee | May 7 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$6 +0.6% | 4 |
| 166d | Whitneey | May 6 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | +$7 +0.6% | 4 |
| 166d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,337 | +$101 +7.5% | 4 | |
| 166d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $17,556 | +$2,365 +13% | 4 | |
| 168d | egabriel | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$210 +18% | 4 |
| 168d | May 2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,221 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 168d | Melody626 | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$400 +19% | 4 |
| 169d | BetterFish | May 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,583 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 170d | 83CAAA | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$324 +16% | 4 |
| 170d | Bodytobody | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | −$301 −22% | — |
| 170d | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,711 | +$689 +25% | 4 | |
| 170d | April 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,008 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 171d | No Meeting before May 11 | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | −$394 −30% | — | |
| 171d | Sweet-BalconyNew account | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$423 +28% | 11 |
| 172d | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,370 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 172d | mindeirs | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,928 | +$512 +27% | 4 |
| 172d | slippy0 | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyNo33¢ → 0¢ | $1,070 | −$1,070 −100% | 4 |
| 172d | VICTORMAX772 fills | No Meeting before May 11 | SellNo32¢ → 0¢ | $10,658 | +$10,658 +100% | — |
| 172d | VICTORMAX774 fills | No Meeting before May 11 | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $6,000 | −$6,000 −100% | 6 |
| 172d | anon.1980.123 | April 27 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 172d | asus2026 | April 28 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,799 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 172d | A27c5517AE9001169C09EfddD5E3a2Da0e367404 | April 27 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,858 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 173d | April 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,277 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 173d | A27c5517AE9001169C09EfddD5E3a2Da0e367404 | April 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,856 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 173d | April 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,243 | +$25 +0.4% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No Meeting before May 11 means the market gives it about 100%.